VCU at Santa Clara
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 10:30 PM ET at Leavey Center. VCU our rank 58 · 2-1; Santa Clara our rank 75 · 4-0.
Who will win VCU vs Santa Clara?
The model gives VCU a 50% chance to beat Santa Clara, with a projected score of VCU 79, Santa Clara 79.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | |||||
| HarperG · 30 min | 13.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 15+ 36% | |
| DjokovicF · 29 min | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 15+ 35% | |
| LewisG · 31 min | 12.0 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 10+ 62% | |
| AlstonF · 25 min | 11.9 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 10+ 61% | |
| Santa Clara | |||||
| GavalyugovG · 29 min | 11.9 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 10+ 61% | |
| CastilloG · 24 min | 11.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| Longcor IIIG · 25 min | 10.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 53% | |
| TadjoF · 22 min | 9.2 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lazar Djokovic: VCU 38%Santa Clara 62%
The white mark is the call with him: VCU 50%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | VCU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | ||||
| Lazar Djokovic | 3.1 | 38% | −12 | 77–80 |
| Nyk Lewis | 2.8 | 39% | −11 | 77–80 |
| Torey Alston | 2.3 | 41% | −9 | 77–80 |
| Blake Harper | 2.1 | 42% | −8 | 78–80 |
| Santa Clara | ||||
| Jake Ensminger | 2.4 | 60% | +10 | 80–77 |
| Sash Gavalyugov | 2.0 | 58% | +8 | 80–78 |
| Thierry Darlan | 1.5 | 56% | +6 | 79–78 |
| Fedor Zugic | 1.3 | 55% | +5 | 79–78 |
Change is in VCU's win chance, in points. Scores read VCU, then Santa Clara. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
VCU 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 87-49vs NJITCovered −33.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 7L 88-89at MemphisDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 159.5
- Nov 2W 82-72vs Little Rock
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 85.7 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Santa Clara 4-0WWWW
- Nov 11W 76-71at North TexasCovered −1.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 7W 83-77vs Sacramento StDidn't cover −19.5 · Under 170.5
- Nov 4W 95-72vs MilwaukeeCovered −15.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 2W 89-70vs Towson
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 85.8 and allowing 72.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| VCU | Santa Clara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 114.3 57th | 111.7 78th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.1 61st | 101.7 77th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 72.8 26th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.5% 181st | 50.7% 172nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 98th | 48.7% 54th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 196th | 18.1% 184th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 126th | 31.9% 172nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.34 3rd | 0.24 266th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- VCU 37, Santa Clara 37
- First-half margin
- Tied
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.7
- Projected second half
- VCU 42, Santa Clara 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- VCU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 35.0 allowed
- Santa Clara, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.0 scored, 34.8 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
VCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyk LewisG | 31 | 12.0 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Blake HarperG | 30 | 13.0 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Lazar DjokovicF | 29 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Torey AlstonF | 25 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Brandon JenningsG | 20 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Ahmad NowellG | 18 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Michael BelleF | 17 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Tyrell WardG | 11 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
Santa Clara
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake EnsmingerG | 32 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Sash GavalyugovG | 29 | 11.9 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 50% | |||||
| Brad Longcor IIIG | 25 | 10.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| David CastilloG | 24 | 11.5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 2+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Fedor ZugicG | 23 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
| Chris TadjoF | 22 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
| Elijah MahiF | 19 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 51% to play · 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Thierry DarlanG | 18 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
Missed the last game: Elijah Mahi (21 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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