VCU v Providence
Monday, November 23, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Lahaina Civic Center. VCU our rank 58 · 2-1; Providence our rank 65 · 2-1.
Who will win VCU vs Providence?
The model gives VCU a 57% chance to beat Providence, with a projected score of VCU 77, Providence 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | |||||
| HarperG · 29 min | 12.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 15+ 35% | |
| DjokovicF · 29 min | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 64% | |
| LewisG · 30 min | 11.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 10+ 60% | |
| AlstonF · 25 min | 11.6 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 10+ 59% | |
| Providence | |||||
| VanterpoolG · 25 min | 13.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 15+ 41% | |
| MackG · 31 min | 13.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 15+ 37% | |
| ByrdG · 29 min | 9.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 10+ 46% | |
| BannarbieF · 26 min | 9.0 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Lazar Djokovic: VCU 46%Providence 54%
The white mark is the call with him: VCU 57%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | VCU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VCU | ||||
| Lazar Djokovic | 3.1 | 46% | −11 | 75–77 |
| Nyk Lewis | 2.8 | 47% | −10 | 76–76 |
| Torey Alston | 2.3 | 49% | −8 | 76–76 |
| Blake Harper | 2.1 | 49% | −8 | 76–76 |
| Providence | ||||
| Miles Byrd | 3.3 | 68% | +11 | 79–73 |
| Devin Vanterpool | 2.6 | 66% | +9 | 78–74 |
| Malik Mack | 2.3 | 65% | +8 | 78–74 |
| Gavin Hightower | 2.2 | 65% | +8 | 78–74 |
Change is in VCU's win chance, in points. Scores read VCU, then Providence. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| VCU | Providence | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 114.3 57th | 110.1 89th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.1 61st | 97.6 37th |
| Possessions a game | 71.1 143rd | 72.4 39th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.5% 181st | 49.3% 270th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 98th | 50.3% 168th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 196th | 19.1% 290th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 126th | 33.8% 67th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.34 3rd | 0.22 351st |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- VCU 36, Providence 35
- First-half margin
- VCU by 1.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.4
- Projected second half
- VCU 41, Providence 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- VCU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 35.0 allowed
- Providence, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 32.3 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
VCU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nyk LewisG | 30 | 11.7 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Blake HarperG | 29 | 12.7 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Lazar DjokovicF | 29 | 12.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Torey AlstonF | 25 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 7+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Brandon JenningsG | 20 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Ahmad NowellG | 18 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Michael BelleF | 17 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 4+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Tyrell WardG | 11 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 30% | |||||
Providence
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik MackG | 31 | 13.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Gavin HightowerG | 29 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Miles ByrdG | 29 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jacob BannarbieF | 26 | 9.0 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Devin VanterpoolG | 25 | 13.8 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Ryan MelaG | 22 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Leonardo MarangonF | 19 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Elijah SaundersF | 15 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Missed the last game: Ryan Mela (24 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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