Northern Iowa v Davidson
Monday, November 23, 2026, 11:00 AM ET at Suncoast Credit Union Arena. Northern Iowa our rank 128 · 2-1; Davidson our rank 88 · 3-0.
Who will win Northern Iowa vs Davidson?
The model gives Davidson a 70% chance to beat Northern Iowa, with a projected score of Davidson 75, Northern Iowa 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson | |||||
| JanowskiG · 34 min | 17.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 15+ 64% | |
| ScovensF · 32 min | 14.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 15+ 45% | |
| BrownG · 30 min | 12.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 15+ 35% | |
| PlatteeuwC · 30 min | 9.9 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 10+ 47% | |
| Northern Iowa | |||||
| UelmenG · 31 min | 17.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 20+ 37% | |
| VisG · 28 min | 13.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 15+ 39% | |
| Johnson-AriguF · 26 min | 13.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 15+ 37% | |
| McCubbinG · 32 min | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 10+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Josh Scovens: Northern Iowa 39%Davidson 61%
The white mark is the call with him: Davidson 70%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Davidson without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davidson | ||||
| Josh Scovens | 2.9 | 61% | −9 | 70–73 |
| Nick Janowski | 2.7 | 61% | −9 | 70–73 |
| Ian Platteeuw | 2.1 | 63% | −7 | 70–74 |
| Sam Brown | 1.3 | 66% | −4 | 69–74 |
| Northern Iowa | ||||
| Isaiah Johnson-Arigu | 1.4 | 74% | +4 | 68–75 |
| Greyson Uelmen | 1.2 | 74% | +4 | 68–75 |
| Ian Smikle | 0.7 | 72% | +2 | 68–75 |
| Tate McCubbin | 0.6 | 72% | +2 | 68–75 |
Change is in Davidson's win chance, in points. Scores read Northern Iowa, then Davidson. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Northern Iowa 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 89-76vs Green BayCovered −3.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 7L 83-98at FurmanDidn't cover +4.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 3W 106-70vs Cornell (IA)
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 81.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Northern Iowa | Davidson | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 108.7 106th | 108.2 110th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.8 193rd | 100.1 58th |
| Possessions a game | 69.3 322nd | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 54.1% 16th | 52.1% 77th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.1% 287th | 47.8% 28th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.4% 101st | 17.2% 85th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.8% 240th | 30.6% 259th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 171st | 0.20 364th |
The widest gap: Davidson's offense (110th) against Northern Iowa's defense (193rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Northern Iowa 32, Davidson 35
- First-half margin
- Davidson by 3.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.3
- Projected second half
- Northern Iowa 37, Davidson 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Northern Iowa, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 38.7 allowed
- Davidson, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 32.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Northern Iowa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tate McCubbinG | 32 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Greyson UelmenG | 31 | 17.7 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Carson VisG | 28 | 13.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Isaiah Johnson-AriguF | 26 | 13.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Levi ValdoG | 20 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Ian SmikleF | 17 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Geon HutchinsG | 15 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Kyle PockF | 13 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Davidson
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick JanowskiG | 34 | 17.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Josh ScovensF | 32 | 14.4 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 6+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Sam BrownG | 30 | 12.8 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Ian PlatteeuwC | 30 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 9+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Jackson KeithF | 22 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| John Carter Jr.G | 14 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Nick CovalG | 13 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 29% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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