Colorado St v Arizona
Monday, November 23, 2026, 11:30 PM ET at Lahaina Civic Center. Colorado St our rank 85 · 3-0; Arizona AP 12, our rank 17 · 2-1.
Who will win Colorado St vs Arizona?
The model gives Arizona a 84% chance to beat Colorado State, with a projected score of Arizona 83, Colorado St 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | |||||
| KharchenkovF · 31 min | 18.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 20+ 41% | |
| KrivasC · 27 min | 14.8 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 15+ 48% | |
| HoltG · 25 min | 12.6 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 15+ 34% | |
| DixonG · 30 min | 10.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 10+ 55% | |
| Colorado St | |||||
| ButlerG · 29 min | 11.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 10+ 55% | |
| PascarelliG · 30 min | 10.9 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 10+ 54% | |
| BoothF · 28 min | 10.9 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 10+ 54% | |
| JorgensenF · 24 min | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Motiejus Krivas: Colorado St 32%Arizona 68%
The white mark is the call with him: Arizona 84%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Arizona without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | ||||
| Motiejus Krivas | 5.7 | 68% | −16 | 75–80 |
| Ivan Kharchenkov | 5.7 | 68% | −16 | 75–80 |
| Derek Dixon | 3.6 | 75% | −9 | 74–81 |
| JJ Mandaquit | 2.7 | 77% | −7 | 73–82 |
| Colorado St | ||||
| Carey Booth | 2.9 | 90% | +6 | 70–84 |
| Kyle Jorgensen | 2.2 | 88% | +4 | 71–84 |
| Jase Butler | 2.0 | 88% | +4 | 71–84 |
| Josh Pascarelli | 1.9 | 88% | +4 | 71–84 |
Change is in Arizona's win chance, in points. Scores read Colorado St, then Arizona. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Colorado St 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 87-71vs Portland StDidn't cover −16.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 6W 78-67vs IdahoDidn't cover −16.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 84-74vs Montana St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 83.0 and allowing 70.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Colorado St | Arizona | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 112.1 72nd | 119.6 16th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 102.9 95th | 96.0 28th |
| Possessions a game | 69.6 302nd | 72.2 55th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.2% 75th | 52.2% 76th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.9% 205th | 50.4% 177th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 141st | 16.9% 55th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.6% 361st | 32.4% 143rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 128th | 0.28 72nd |
The widest gap: Arizona's offense (16th) against Colorado St's defense (95th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Colorado St 33, Arizona 39
- First-half margin
- Arizona by 6.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.6
- Projected second half
- Colorado St 39, Arizona 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Colorado St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 40.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
- Arizona, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 44.7 scored, 35.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Colorado St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh PascarelliG | 30 | 10.9 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Jase ButlerG | 29 | 11.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 42% | |||||
| Carey BoothF | 28 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Justin MenardG | 25 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 61% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Kyle JorgensenF | 24 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Rashaan MbembaF | 16 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Jaden GhoreishiF | 16 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Jojo McIverG | 14 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 38% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan KharchenkovF | 31 | 18.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 7+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Derek DixonG | 30 | 10.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Motiejus KrivasC | 27 | 14.8 | 8.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 8+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| JJ MandaquitG | 25 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ ast 57% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Caleb HoltG | 25 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Cameron HolmesG | 18 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Bryce JamesG | 15 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Maksim BrnovicF | 14 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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