Washington v BYU
Monday, November 23, 2026, 5:00 PM ET at Lahaina Civic Center. Washington our rank 99 · 2-0; BYU AP 23, our rank 33 · 4-0.
Who will win Washington vs BYU?
The model gives BYU a 82% chance to beat Washington, with a projected score of BYU 85, Washington 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | |||||
| Wright IIIG · 31 min | 21.2 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 20+ 55% | |
| Branch IIIF · 25 min | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| ChandlerG · 28 min | 12.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10+ 64% | |
| KohlerF · 24 min | 12.1 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 10+ 63% | |
| Washington | |||||
| WattsG · 28 min | 11.9 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| BeasleyG · 33 min | 11.6 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 10+ 59% | |
| Yates IIIG · 26 min | 8.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 10+ 39% | |
| DzepinaF · 23 min | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Robert Wright III: Washington 29%BYU 71%
The white mark is the call with him: BYU 82%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | BYU without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | ||||
| Robert Wright III | 4.4 | 71% | −11 | 77–83 |
| Jaxon Kohler | 4.1 | 71% | −11 | 77–83 |
| Collin Chandler | 3.4 | 74% | −8 | 76–83 |
| Jake Wahlin | 1.9 | 78% | −4 | 76–84 |
| Washington | ||||
| LeJuan Watts | 2.7 | 88% | +6 | 73–86 |
| Ryan Beasley | 1.6 | 86% | +4 | 74–86 |
| Wesley Yates III | 1.5 | 86% | +4 | 74–86 |
| Tayshawn Comer | 1.4 | 85% | +3 | 74–86 |
Change is in BYU's win chance, in points. Scores read Washington, then BYU. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Washington 2-0WW
- Nov 9W 77-64vs Miss Valley StDidn't cover −31.5 · Under 153.5
- Nov 2W 90-76vs Colgate
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 83.5 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
BYU 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 86-71vs Montana StDidn't cover −21.5 · Under 162.5
- Nov 10W 98-82vs QueensDidn't cover −28.5 · Under 181.5
- Nov 6W 108-67vs OmahaCovered −32.5 · Over 162.5
- Nov 2W 94-83vs Ohio State
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 96.5 and allowing 75.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Washington | BYU | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 110.6 87th | 120.2 11th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.8 112th | 100.7 70th |
| Possessions a game | 70.5 215th | 71.7 87th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.4% 196th | 55.5% 4th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.8% 202nd | 52.4% 306th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.2% 202nd | 16.7% 41st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 126th | 31.4% 210th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 132nd | 0.25 262nd |
The widest gap: BYU's offense (11th) against Washington's defense (112th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Washington 35, BYU 40
- First-half margin
- BYU by 5.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.9
- Projected second half
- Washington 40, BYU 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Washington, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 44.0 scored, 35.5 allowed
- BYU, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 46.8 scored, 34.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Washington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan BeasleyG | 33 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 45% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| LeJuan WattsG | 28 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Wesley Yates IIIG | 26 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 61% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Tayshawn ComerG | 23 | 7.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Nikola DzepinaF | 23 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Steele VentersG | 19 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Lathan SommervilleC | 18 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
| Parker FriedrichsenG | 18 | 8.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
BYU
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Wright IIIG | 31 | 21.2 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 |
| 20+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 43% · 5+ ast 44% | |||||
| Collin ChandlerG | 28 | 12.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Bruce Branch IIIF | 25 | 12.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jaxon KohlerF | 24 | 12.1 | 7.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Tyler BetseyF | 23 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Jake WahlinF | 19 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Khadim MboupF | 15 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 23% · 5+ reb 48% | |||||
| Nate PickensG | 15 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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