Who will win Akron vs Wright St?
The model gives Wright State a 51% chance to beat Akron, with a projected score of Wright St 79, Akron 79.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Wright St | |||||
| PangonisG · 32 min | 14.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 15+ 44% | |
| PickettF · 30 min | 13.4 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 39% | |
| O'HaraG · 30 min | 12.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| HoldenG · 23 min | 12.7 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 15+ 35% | |
 Akron | |||||
| StaveskieG · 30 min | 16.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 15+ 58% | |
| PenceG · 26 min | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 15+ 35% | |
| MahaffeyF · 27 min | 10.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 10+ 50% | |
| OriolG · 18 min | 8.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Kellen Pickett: Akron 58%Wright St 42%
The white mark is the call with him: Wright St 51%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Wright St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wright St | ||||
| Kellen Pickett | 2.3 | 42% | −9 | 80–78 |
| Andrea Holden | 2.0 | 43% | −8 | 80–78 |
| C.J. O'Hara | 1.9 | 44% | −7 | 80–78 |
| Dominic Pangonis | 1.4 | 46% | −5 | 80–79 |
| Akron | ||||
| Evan Mahaffey | 2.5 | 61% | +10 | 78–80 |
| Ty Pence | 2.1 | 60% | +9 | 78–80 |
| Tahj Staveskie | 1.0 | 56% | +5 | 78–80 |
| Chabi Barre | 0.9 | 55% | +4 | 78–80 |
Change is in Wright St's win chance, in points. Scores read Akron, then Wright St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Akron 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 93.5 and allowing 62.5
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Akron | Wright St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.4 96th | 112.0 75th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.1 118th | 106.1 131st |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 73rd | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.8% 94th | 54.6% 9th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.6% 22nd | 48.1% 38th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 253rd | 18.5% 235th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 114th | 33.9% 65th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 95th | 0.29 62nd |
The widest gap: Wright St's offense (75th) against Akron's defense (118th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Akron 37, Wright St 37
- First-half margin
- Wright St by 0.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.2
- Projected second half
- Akron 42, Wright St 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Akron, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 54.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
- Wright St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 47.7 scored, 30.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Akron
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahj StaveskieG | 30 | 16.6 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| 15+ pts 58% · 3+ ast 51% · 4+ threes 47% | |||||
| Evan MahaffeyF | 27 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 5+ reb 56% · 3+ ast 55% | |||||
| Ty PenceG | 26 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Zach HalliganF | 19 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Buddy Hammer Jr.F | 19 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Kamrin OriolG | 18 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Colin WhiteF | 17 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Chabi BarreF | 15 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 54% | |||||
Wright St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic PangonisG | 32 | 14.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| C.J. O'HaraG | 30 | 12.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Kellen PickettF | 30 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Chadlyn TraylorG | 27 | 9.3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| 46% to play · 10+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 55% · 4+ ast 47% | |||||
| Noah LewisF | 23 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Andrea HoldenG | 23 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 7+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Ilija MilijasevicG | 21 | 7.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Isaiah WilliamsG | 17 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
Missed the last game: Chadlyn Traylor (30 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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