Who will win Tulane vs Akron?
The model gives Akron a 84% chance to beat Tulane, with a projected score of Akron 84, Tulane 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Akron | |||||
| StaveskieG · 29 min | 16.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 15+ 60% | |
| PenceG · 25 min | 13.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 15+ 37% | |
| MahaffeyF · 26 min | 10.4 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 10+ 51% | |
| OriolG · 18 min | 9.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10+ 42% | |
 Tulane | |||||
| LewisG · 36 min | 22.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 25+ 39% | |
| NadeauG · 26 min | 11.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 10+ 59% | |
| RinggoldF · 29 min | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 57% | |
| SchwiegerF · 30 min | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 10+ 44% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Evan Mahaffey: Tulane 22%Akron 78%
The white mark is the call with him: Akron 84%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Akron without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akron | ||||
| Evan Mahaffey | 2.5 | 78% | −6 | 74–83 |
| Ty Pence | 2.1 | 79% | −5 | 74–83 |
| Tahj Staveskie | 1.0 | 82% | −2 | 73–84 |
| Chabi Barre | 0.9 | 82% | −2 | 73–84 |
| Tulane | ||||
| TJ Nadeau | 1.0 | 86% | +2 | 72–85 |
| Tyler Ringgold | 0.7 | 85% | +1 | 72–84 |
Change is in Akron's win chance, in points. Scores read Tulane, then Akron. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tulane | Akron | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.1 161st | 109.4 96th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 269th | 105.1 118th |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 71.9 73rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 164th | 51.8% 94th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.5% 344th | 47.6% 22nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 187th | 18.6% 253rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 265th | 32.9% 114th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.34 2nd | 0.28 95th |
The widest gap: Akron's offense (96th) against Tulane's defense (269th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tulane 34, Akron 40
- First-half margin
- Akron by 6.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Projected second half
- Tulane 39, Akron 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tulane, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 33.0 allowed
- Akron, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 54.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tulane
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krystian LewisG | 36 | 22.9 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 |
| 25+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| KJ GreeneG | 32 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 57% | |||||
| Carson SchwiegerF | 30 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Tyler RinggoldF | 29 | 11.3 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| TJ NadeauG | 26 | 11.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Joah ChappelleF | 22 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
| Josiah MooreG | 19 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 42% | |||||
| Ryan BlountG | 11 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 15% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Akron
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahj StaveskieG | 29 | 16.8 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.7 |
| 15+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 55% · 4+ threes 47% | |||||
| Evan MahaffeyF | 26 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 6+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 59% | |||||
| Ty PenceG | 25 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Zach HalliganF | 19 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Buddy Hammer Jr.F | 19 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Kamrin OriolG | 18 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Colin WhiteF | 17 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Chabi BarreF | 16 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 43% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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