Who won Akron vs Louisiana?
Final: Akron 75, Louisiana 61. Before tip-off the model gave Akron a 80% chance to win, with a projected margin of 10.5 points for Akron. Ty Pence scored 19 for Akron; Jamyron Keller had 26 for Louisiana.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Evan Mahaffey: Akron 74%Louisiana 26%
The white mark is the call with him: Akron 80%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Akron without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Akron | ||||
| Evan Mahaffey | 2.5 | 74% | −6 | 72–64 |
| Ty Pence | 2.1 | 75% | −5 | 72–64 |
| Tahj Staveskie | 1.0 | 78% | −2 | 73–63 |
| Chabi Barre | 0.9 | 78% | −2 | 73–63 |
Change is in Akron's win chance, in points. Scores read Akron, then Louisiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Akron
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Louisiana
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Akron | Louisiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 109.4 96th | 93.4 350th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.1 118th | 109.7 217th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 73rd | 68.9 337th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.8% 94th | 45.9% 360th |
| Opponents' shooting | 47.6% 22nd | 52.4% 306th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 253rd | 17.2% 88th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.9% 114th | 27.7% 354th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 95th | 0.28 90th |
The widest gap: Akron's defense (118th) against Louisiana's offense (350th), of 365 teams.
First half
Akron led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 11.2 points and the total by 11.4.
- At halftime
- Akron 46, Louisiana 29
- Projected halftime score
- Akron 35, Louisiana 29
- First-half margin
- Akron by 5.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Akron
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahj StaveskieG | 38 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Ty PenceG | 34 | 19 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| Evan MahaffeyF | 33 | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 |
| Zach HalliganF | 21 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Buddy Hammer Jr.F | 20 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Colin WhiteF | 16 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Kamrin OriolG | 16 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| Chabi BarreF | 14 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Musiime-KamaliF | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Louisiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamyron KellerG | 36 | 26 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Trent Middleton Jr.G | 31 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Dani PoundsF | 30 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Mekhi CooperG | 26 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Josiah HarrisF | 23 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| De'vion LavergneG | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Mikhail DulkayF | 18 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeremiah EvansF | 12 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rahman OlajuwonF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |