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Probable Stats / Men's / Wednesday, November 18

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Louisiana at San Francisco

Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 10:00 PM ET at The Sobrato Center. Louisiana our rank 332 · 1-2; San Francisco our rank 127 · 3-0.

Who will win Louisiana vs San Francisco?

From this morning's ratings; logged before tip-off.

The model gives San Francisco a 92% chance to beat Louisiana, with a projected score of San Francisco 75, Louisiana 60.

To winSan Francisco 92%Louisiana 8%
Projected score60–75Louisiana, then San Francisco
Margin15.6San Francisco · no line posted
Total135.1no line posted
First half27–36San Francisco ahead 79%
Louisiana by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40San Francisco by 50Model: San Francisco by 15.6Louisiana by 10by 10by 30San Francisco by 50Model: San Francisco by 15.6

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
San Francisco
OosterbaanF · 32 min13.06.11.715+ 37%
BordonG · 29 min11.33.43.410+ 57%
KnudsenF · 30 min10.66.01.910+ 53%
HilmanG · 20 min8.22.81.010+ 35%
Louisiana
KellerG · 35 min15.93.52.015+ 54%
PoundsF · 22 min9.64.80.610+ 45%
LavergneG · 30 min7.62.51.95+ 69%
CooperG · 30 min6.82.22.75+ 63%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Ben Oosterbaan: Louisiana 11%San Francisco 89%

The white mark is the call with him: San Francisco 92%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsSan Francisco without himChangeProjected score
San Francisco
Ben Oosterbaan1.689%−361–75
Ndewedo Newbury1.489%−360–75
Gustav Knudsen0.591%−160–75

Change is in San Francisco's win chance, in points. Scores read Louisiana, then San Francisco. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Louisiana 1-2LLW

    1. Nov 9W 56-39vs Southern New Orleans
    2. Nov 6L 60-67vs Texas A&M-CCDidn't cover −3.5 · Under 129.5
    3. Nov 2L 61-75vs Akron
    Last 3
    1–2, scoring 59.0 and allowing 60.3
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    San Francisco 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 10W 63-58vs MontanaDidn't cover −11.5 · Under 147.5
    2. Nov 6W 79-70vs N Dakota StCovered −8.5 · Over 145.5
    3. Nov 2W 76-62vs Radford
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 72.7 and allowing 63.3
    Against the spread, this season
    1–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 1 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    LouisianaSan Francisco
    Points scored per 100 possessions93.4 350th104.3 175th
    Points allowed per 100109.7 217th104.3 106th
    Possessions a game68.9 337th69.8 286th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)45.9% 360th48.6% 311th
    Opponents' shooting52.4% 306th50.2% 159th
    Turnovers, share of possessions17.2% 88th19.2% 302nd
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses27.7% 354th34.0% 64th
    Free throws per shot0.28 90th0.29 45th

    The widest gap: San Francisco's defense (106th) against Louisiana's offense (350th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Louisiana 27, San Francisco 36
    First-half margin
    San Francisco by 8.6
    First-half points, both teams
    63.4
    Projected second half
    Louisiana 32, San Francisco 39
    Second-half points, both teams
    71.7
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Louisiana, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
    San Francisco, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 3 · 36.0 scored, 29.7 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Louisiana

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Jamyron KellerG3515.93.52.02.8
    15+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ threes 48%
    Mekhi CooperG306.82.22.70.9
    5+ pts 63% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 55%
    De'vion LavergneG307.62.51.91.5
    5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 54%
    Isaiah WilksG225.22.11.00.8
    5+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51%
    Dani PoundsF229.64.80.60.5
    48% to play · 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 38%
    Jeremiah EvansF193.83.00.40.0
    5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 54%
    Mikhail DulkayF184.23.10.70.3
    5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 24%
    Josiah HarrisF183.32.91.00.7
    50% to play · 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 46%

    Missed the last game: Josiah Harris (20 min a game), Trent Middleton Jr. (18 min a game) and Dani Pounds (25 min a game).

    San Francisco

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Ben OosterbaanF3213.06.11.71.7
    15+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 47%
    Gustav KnudsenF3010.66.01.90.8
    10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 53%
    Dylan BordonG2911.33.43.41.6
    10+ pts 57% · 4+ ast 43% · 2+ threes 45%
    Yoav VitlemG267.82.72.30.7
    10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 49%
    Ismaila DiagneC266.06.90.80.0
    46% to play · 5+ pts 55% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 19%
    Ndewedo NewburyF218.03.31.50.9
    10+ pts 34% · 2+ ast 42% · 1+ threes 56%
    Andrew HilmanG208.22.81.00.7
    10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 50%
    Aidan BracciaG101.80.90.40.5
    2+ reb 24% · 1+ threes 36%

    Missed the last game: Ismaila Diagne (30 min a game).

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Wed, Nov 18

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 77-81FGCU at FAU, men's: game page
    2. 7 PMprojected 68-75James Madison at Towson, men's: game page
    3. 8 PMprojected 71-66Boston College at Harvard, men's: game page
    4. 8 PMprojected 77-74Wichita St at Loyola Chicago, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 74-76UConn at Arizona, men's: game page
    6. 10 PMprojected 75-75Washington St vs Hawai'i, men's: game page
    Louisiana next: at USC, Sun, Nov 22 · <1%San Francisco next: vs Portland St, Sat, Nov 14 · 77%Louisiana: schedule and oddsSan Francisco: schedule and odds