Who will win Louisiana vs USC?
The model gives USC a >99% chance to beat Louisiana, with a projected score of USC 88, Louisiana 57.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 USC | |||||
| ArenasG · 31 min | 20.5 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 20+ 52% | |
| RiceG · 33 min | 19.9 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 20+ 49% | |
| LewisG · 23 min | 11.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 10+ 60% | |
| RatliffF · 19 min | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 10+ 45% | |
 Louisiana | |||||
| KellerG · 32 min | 14.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 15+ 44% | |
| PoundsF · 21 min | 8.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 10+ 40% | |
| LavergneG · 28 min | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 5+ 63% | |
| CooperG · 28 min | 6.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 5+ 57% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rodney Rice: Louisiana 1%USC 99%
The white mark is the call with him: USC >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | USC without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | ||||
| Rodney Rice | 3.9 | 99% | −1 | 58–86 |
| KJ Lewis | 3.3 | 99% | −1 | 58–86 |
| Alijah Arenas | 3.1 | 99% | −1 | 58–86 |
| Jacob Cofie | 2.8 | 99% | −1 | 58–86 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read Louisiana, then USC. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Louisiana 1-2LLW
- Nov 9W 56-39vs Southern New Orleans
- Nov 6L 60-67vs Texas A&M-CCDidn't cover −3.5 · Under 129.5
- Nov 2L 61-75vs Akron
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 59.0 and allowing 60.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
USC 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 77-65at CaliforniaCovered −8.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 8W 93-86vs Wichita StCovered −6.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 2W 95-63vs Milwaukee
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 88.3 and allowing 71.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Louisiana | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 93.4 350th | 115.5 48th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 109.7 217th | 98.1 40th |
| Possessions a game | 68.9 337th | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 45.9% 360th | 51.4% 112th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.4% 306th | 48.1% 39th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.2% 88th | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 27.7% 354th | 33.6% 77th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 90th | 0.32 8th |
The widest gap: USC's defense (40th) against Louisiana's offense (350th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Louisiana 25, USC 42
- First-half margin
- USC by 17.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.6
- Projected second half
- Louisiana 31, USC 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Louisiana, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 27.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
- USC, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Louisiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamyron KellerG | 32 | 14.1 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Mekhi CooperG | 28 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| De'vion LavergneG | 28 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Isaiah WilksG | 22 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Dani PoundsF | 21 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 36% | |||||
| Jeremiah EvansF | 20 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 51% | |||||
| Mikhail DulkayF | 18 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 24% | |||||
| Josiah HarrisF | 18 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 50% to play · 5+ pts 25% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Josiah Harris (20 min a game), Trent Middleton Jr. (18 min a game) and Dani Pounds (25 min a game).
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodney RiceG | 33 | 19.9 | 4.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 |
| 20+ pts 49% · 7+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Alijah ArenasG | 31 | 20.5 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 1.1 |
| 20+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Jacob CofieF | 25 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 7+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| KJ LewisG | 23 | 11.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 3+ ast 44% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Adonis RatliffF | 19 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Jadis JonesG | 18 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 6+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Darius RatliffC | 17 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Joshua HughesF | 11 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…