Wichita St 86, USC 93
Final. Sunday, November 8, 2026, 11:00 PM ET at Tahoe Blue Event Center. Wichita St our rank 91 · 2-1; USC AP 21, our rank 38 · 3-0.
Who won Wichita St vs USC?
Final: USC 93, Wichita State 86. Before tip-off the model gave USC a 64% chance to win, with a projected margin of 4.3 points for USC. The spread was USC −6.5: USC covered, and the 179 points went over an over/under of 155.5. Rodney Rice scored 32 for USC; Michael Gray Jr. had 18 for Wichita St.
Prediction logged before tip-off; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Rodney Rice: Wichita St 48%USC 52%
The white mark is the call with him: USC 64%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | USC without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USC | ||||
| Rodney Rice | 3.9 | 52% | −12 | 76–76 |
| KJ Lewis | 3.3 | 53% | −11 | 76–76 |
| Alijah Arenas | 3.1 | 54% | −10 | 75–77 |
| Jacob Cofie | 2.8 | 55% | −9 | 75–77 |
| Wichita St | ||||
| Dillon Battie | 2.5 | 72% | +8 | 73–79 |
| Kenyon Giles | 2.1 | 71% | +7 | 73–79 |
| Jahari Long | 1.4 | 69% | +5 | 73–79 |
| Emmanuel Okorafor | 1.3 | 68% | +4 | 73–79 |
Change is in USC's win chance, in points. Scores read Wichita St, then USC. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | USC −6.5 | 155.5 |
| Model | USC −4.3 | 152.0 |
| Final | USC by 7 | 179 |
USC covered the spread, against the model's lean. The total went over; the model had it lower than the line. On the margin, the line was closer (off by 2.7 and 0.5).
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Wichita St | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 110.9 85th | 115.5 48th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 103.2 98th | 98.1 40th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 72.6 33rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 242nd | 51.4% 112th |
| Opponents' shooting | 48.7% 50th | 48.1% 39th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 97th | 17.8% 146th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 230th | 33.6% 77th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 96th | 0.32 8th |
The widest gap: USC's offense (48th) against Wichita St's defense (98th), of 365 teams.
First half
Wichita St led at the half, against the projection. The margin was off by 4.4 points and the total by 16.7.
- At halftime
- Wichita St 45, USC 43
- Projected halftime score
- Wichita St 34, USC 37
- First-half margin
- USC by 2.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Wichita St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 47.0 scored, 40.0 allowed
- USC, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 1 · 46.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Wichita St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon BattieF | 30 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Jahari LongG | 29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Kenyon GilesG | 28 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Bryce HeardG | 25 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| William BergC | 21 | 17 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan FrisonG | 20 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Emmanuel OkoraforF | 19 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Gray Jr.G | 18 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| Jaret ValenciaF | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
USC
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alijah ArenasG | 39 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Rodney RiceG | 39 | 32 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Adonis RatliffF | 33 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius RatliffC | 19 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob CofieF | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| KJ LewisG | 16 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Hunkin-ClaytorG | 12 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Joshua HughesF | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadis JonesG | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |