Austin Peay at Wichita St
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Charles Koch Arena. Austin Peay our rank 222 · 2-1; Wichita St our rank 91 · 2-1.
Who will win Austin Peay vs Wichita St?
The model gives Wichita State a 89% chance to beat Austin Peay, with a projected score of Wichita St 83, Austin Peay 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wichita St | |||||
| GilesG · 26 min | 14.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 15+ 47% | |
| BergC · 20 min | 12.7 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| BattieF · 23 min | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 53% | |
| FrisonG · 21 min | 9.7 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| Austin Peay | |||||
| CollinsPG · 35 min | 14.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 15+ 47% | |
| MarshallF · 25 min | 11.0 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| Love IIIG · 25 min | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| RyansG · 24 min | 8.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dillon Battie: Austin Peay 15%Wichita St 85%
The white mark is the call with him: Wichita St 89%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Wichita St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wichita St | ||||
| Dillon Battie | 2.5 | 85% | −4 | 70–82 |
| Kenyon Giles | 2.1 | 85% | −4 | 70–82 |
| Jahari Long | 1.4 | 87% | −2 | 70–83 |
| Emmanuel Okorafor | 1.3 | 87% | −2 | 70–83 |
| Austin Peay | ||||
| Rashaud Marshall | 1.5 | 91% | +2 | 68–84 |
| Zyree Collins | 0.7 | 90% | +1 | 69–84 |
Change is in Wichita St's win chance, in points. Scores read Austin Peay, then Wichita St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Austin Peay 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 82-61vs Livingstone
- Nov 6L 69-71at Kennesaw StCovered +5.5 · Under 161.5
- Nov 2W 109-65vs Lane College
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 86.7 and allowing 65.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Wichita St 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 113-60vs Friends
- Nov 8L 86-93vs USCDidn't cover +6.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 4W 79-67vs CSU Northridge
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 92.7 and allowing 73.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Austin Peay | Wichita St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.5 256th | 110.9 85th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.2 178th | 103.2 98th |
| Possessions a game | 72.0 63rd | 71.3 121st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.5% 253rd | 49.7% 242nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.6% 123rd | 48.7% 50th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.0% 65th | 17.3% 97th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.0% 279th | 31.0% 230th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 114th | 0.28 96th |
The widest gap: Wichita St's defense (98th) against Austin Peay's offense (256th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Austin Peay 32, Wichita St 40
- First-half margin
- Wichita St by 8.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.5
- Projected second half
- Austin Peay 37, Wichita St 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Austin Peay, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 48.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
- Wichita St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 51.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Austin Peay
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyree CollinsPG | 35 | 14.6 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 53% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| Felipe MinzerPG | 28 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Rashaud MarshallF | 25 | 11.0 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Chuck Love IIIG | 25 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 57% | |||||
| Cam RyansG | 24 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Bradley FloydG | 20 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Shamarrie HugieG | 16 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Alex DavisF | 12 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 44% | |||||
Wichita St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyon GilesG | 26 | 14.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jahari LongG | 26 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Dillon BattieF | 23 | 10.6 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Bryce HeardG | 22 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Jordan FrisonG | 21 | 9.7 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 54% | |||||
| William BergC | 20 | 12.7 | 8.6 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 48% to play · 15+ pts 35% · 9+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 19% | |||||
| Desmeon JonesG | 16 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| TJ WilliamsG | 13 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 78% to play · 5+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
Missed the last game: William Berg (24 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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