UT Rio Grande at Austin Peay
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at F&M Bank Arena. UT Rio Grande our rank 249 · 2-1; Austin Peay our rank 222 · 2-1.
Who will win UT Rio Grande vs Austin Peay?
The model gives Austin Peay a 66% chance to beat UT Rio Grande Valley, with a projected score of Austin Peay 75, UT Rio Grande 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay | |||||
| CollinsPG · 36 min | 16.2 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 15+ 56% | |
| MarshallF · 26 min | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 62% | |
| Love IIIG · 25 min | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| RyansG · 24 min | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 10+ 41% | |
| UT Rio Grande | |||||
| PoseyG · 31 min | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 15+ 37% | |
| KnightG · 29 min | 10.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 10+ 49% | |
| Crawford Jr.F · 24 min | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 5+ 69% | |
| PryorG · 28 min | 6.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 5+ 59% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Rashaud Marshall: UT Rio Grande 39%Austin Peay 61%
The white mark is the call with him: Austin Peay 66%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Austin Peay without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay | ||||
| Rashaud Marshall | 1.5 | 61% | −5 | 71–74 |
| Zyree Collins | 0.7 | 63% | −3 | 71–75 |
| UT Rio Grande | ||||
| Jace Posey | 1.2 | 69% | +3 | 70–76 |
Change is in Austin Peay's win chance, in points. Scores read UT Rio Grande, then Austin Peay. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UT Rio Grande 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 65-72vs Texas StDidn't cover +5.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 7W 68-63vs Prairie ViewDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2W 81-51vs Texas A&M-Kingsville
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 71.3 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Austin Peay 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 82-61vs Livingstone
- Nov 6L 69-71at Kennesaw StCovered +5.5 · Under 161.5
- Nov 2W 109-65vs Lane College
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 86.7 and allowing 65.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UT Rio Grande | Austin Peay | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.4 262nd | 100.5 256th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.4 240th | 108.2 178th |
| Possessions a game | 69.1 331st | 72.0 63rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 296th | 49.5% 253rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.6% 264th | 49.6% 123rd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 151st | 17.0% 65th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 170th | 30.0% 279th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 143rd | 0.27 114th |
The widest gap: Austin Peay's defense (178th) against UT Rio Grande's offense (262nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UT Rio Grande 33, Austin Peay 35
- First-half margin
- Austin Peay by 2.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.2
- Projected second half
- UT Rio Grande 38, Austin Peay 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UT Rio Grande, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.3 scored, 26.0 allowed
- Austin Peay, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 48.0 scored, 27.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UT Rio Grande
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jace PoseyG | 31 | 13.1 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| B.B. KnightG | 29 | 10.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Devon PryorG | 28 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Bobby Crawford Jr.F | 24 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Terrell WrightF | 19 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Always WrightG | 18 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Caden BellG | 18 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Chris UwayoG | 13 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
Austin Peay
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyree CollinsPG | 36 | 16.2 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 46% · 5+ ast 50% | |||||
| Felipe MinzerPG | 28 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Rashaud MarshallF | 26 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Chuck Love IIIG | 25 | 9.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 61% | |||||
| Cam RyansG | 24 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 47% | |||||
| Bradley FloydG | 20 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Shamarrie HugieG | 16 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Alex DavisF | 11 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 3+ reb 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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