C Arkansas at Jacksonville
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 4:00 PM ET at Swisher Gymnasium. C Arkansas our rank 162 · 2-1; Jacksonville our rank 205 · 2-1.
Who will win C Arkansas vs Jacksonville?
The model gives Jacksonville a 53% chance to beat Central Arkansas, with a projected score of Jacksonville 74, C Arkansas 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | |||||
| WoodG · 31 min | 16.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 15+ 55% | |
| Phillips Jr.G · 28 min | 16.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 15+ 55% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 9.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 10+ 45% | |
| MorrowF · 22 min | 8.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 36% | |
| C Arkansas | |||||
| RobinsonG · 20 min | 12.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| MooreG · 23 min | 8.9 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 40% | |
| BeauchampG · 21 min | 6.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5+ 63% | |
| McCormickG · 22 min | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Nehemiah Turner: C Arkansas 49%Jacksonville 51%
The white mark is the call with him: Jacksonville 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Jacksonville without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville | ||||
| Nehemiah Turner | 0.5 | 51% | −2 | 73–73 |
| C Arkansas | ||||
| Ty Robinson | 1.4 | 59% | +6 | 72–74 |
| Tucker Anderson | 0.9 | 57% | +4 | 72–74 |
| Luke Moore | 0.5 | 55% | +2 | 73–74 |
Change is in Jacksonville's win chance, in points. Scores read C Arkansas, then Jacksonville. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
C Arkansas 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 127-54vs Ecclesia
- Nov 6L 60-92at Ole MissDidn't cover +17.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 85-55vs Oral Roberts
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 90.7 and allowing 67.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Jacksonville 2-1WLW
- Nov 9W 79-61vs Kansas CityCovered −3.5 · Under 146.5
- Nov 5L 57-88at FloridaCovered +36.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 105-61vs Trinity College of Jacksonville
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 80.3 and allowing 70.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| C Arkansas | Jacksonville | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.2 177th | 102.3 212th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.0 172nd | 109.0 195th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 69.0 333rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 144th | 49.2% 274th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.4% 106th | 48.9% 65th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 194th | 16.3% 18th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.7% 295th | 30.0% 285th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 186th | 0.27 107th |
The widest gap: C Arkansas's defense (172nd) against Jacksonville's offense (212th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- C Arkansas 34, Jacksonville 35
- First-half margin
- Jacksonville by 0.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Projected second half
- C Arkansas 39, Jacksonville 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- C Arkansas, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 47.3 scored, 33.7 allowed
- Jacksonville, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 32.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
C Arkansas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke MooreG | 23 | 8.9 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Cole McCormickG | 22 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Harry BeauchampG | 21 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Ty RobinsonG | 20 | 12.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Simm-Marten SaadiF | 19 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 61% | |||||
| Tucker AndersonF | 18 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Rylie MarshallG | 15 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Malchiah MarableF | 15 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 52% to play · 5+ pts 26% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 23% | |||||
Missed the last game: Malchiah Marable (15 min a game).
Jacksonville
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hayden WoodG | 31 | 16.0 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jamie Phillips Jr.G | 28 | 16.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 55% · 3+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Caleb WilliamsG | 26 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| James MorrowF | 22 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Evan SterckG | 20 | 6.2 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Nehemiah TurnerF | 16 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 19% | |||||
| Rex StirlingF | 15 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Sam MbingazoC | 14 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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