Drake at Missouri St
Saturday, November 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Great Southern Bank Arena. Drake our rank 122 · 2-0; Missouri St our rank 238 · 3-0.
Who will win Drake vs Missouri St?
The model gives Drake a 65% chance to beat Missouri State, with a projected score of Drake 76, Missouri St 71.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | |||||
| CarrollF · 28 min | 15.7 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 15+ 53% | |
| LarsonG · 31 min | 10.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 10+ 53% | |
| KindellG · 27 min | 10.2 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 10+ 49% | |
| BurnsF · 25 min | 9.3 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| Missouri St | |||||
| AcimovicC · 26 min | 14.0 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 15+ 43% | |
| Williams Jr.G · 32 min | 12.7 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| CunninghamG · 23 min | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 10+ 34% | |
| RoweG · 20 min | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dre Kindell: Drake 59%Missouri St 41%
The white mark is the call with him: Drake 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Drake without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | ||||
| Dre Kindell | 1.8 | 59% | −6 | 75–72 |
| Jon Carroll | 1.4 | 60% | −5 | 75–72 |
| Eli Shetlar | 0.8 | 62% | −3 | 75–71 |
| Owen Larson | 0.7 | 63% | −2 | 75–71 |
Change is in Drake's win chance, in points. Scores read Drake, then Missouri St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Drake 2-0WW
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 88.0 and allowing 58.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
Missouri St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 89-62vs Newman
- Nov 6W 79-62vs Truman State
- Nov 3W 88-60vs Lincoln (MO)
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.3 and allowing 61.3
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Drake | Missouri St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.5 133rd | 100.7 252nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 105.7 125th | 109.8 221st |
| Possessions a game | 70.7 196th | 69.9 276th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.0% 219th | 50.5% 182nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.9% 279th | 50.5% 188th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 270th | 18.1% 194th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.1% 222nd | 31.7% 184th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 137th | 0.26 164th |
The widest gap: Drake's defense (125th) against Missouri St's offense (252nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Drake 36, Missouri St 33
- First-half margin
- Drake by 2.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.7
- Projected second half
- Drake 40, Missouri St 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Drake, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 24.5 allowed
- Missouri St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 41.3 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Drake
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen LarsonG | 31 | 10.7 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jon CarrollF | 28 | 15.7 | 8.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Dre KindellG | 27 | 10.2 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Andrew AliaG | 26 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 62% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Justin BurnsF | 25 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Eli ShetlarG | 20 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Griffen GoodbaryF | 13 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Dothan IjadimbolaG | 12 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
Missouri St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Williams Jr.G | 32 | 12.7 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Andrej AcimovicC | 26 | 14.0 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 6+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Jordan BlairG | 25 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Melakih CunninghamG | 23 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Dylan RoweG | 20 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Christian ThompsonF | 19 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
| Matt GrayF | 17 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 61% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
| Ngundeng RueyF | 16 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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