South Dakota at Drake
Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Knapp Center. South Dakota our rank 297 · 1-3; Drake our rank 122 · 2-0.
Who will win South Dakota vs Drake?
The model gives Drake a 89% chance to beat South Dakota, with a projected score of Drake 86, South Dakota 71. The spread is Drake −13.5, with an over/under of 161.5. The model makes it Drake by 14.5, 1.0 points toward Drake, and projects 157 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | |||||
| CarrollF · 27 min | 16.8 | 8.4 | 1.2 | 15+ 59% | |
| LarsonG · 30 min | 11.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 10+ 58% | |
| KindellG · 26 min | 10.9 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| BurnsF · 25 min | 10.0 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 10+ 48% | |
| South Dakota | |||||
| BuzelisG · 29 min | 13.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 15+ 38% | |
| SummersG · 28 min | 12.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| KublickasG · 24 min | 9.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| DotzlerG · 24 min | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 37% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dre Kindell: South Dakota 14%Drake 86%
The white mark is the call with him: Drake 89%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Drake without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | ||||
| Dre Kindell | 1.8 | 86% | −3 | 72–85 |
| Jon Carroll | 1.4 | 87% | −2 | 72–85 |
| Eli Shetlar | 0.8 | 88% | −1 | 72–85 |
| Owen Larson | 0.7 | 88% | −1 | 71–85 |
| South Dakota | ||||
| Cade Kelderman | 0.9 | 91% | +2 | 71–86 |
Change is in Drake's win chance, in points. Scores read South Dakota, then Drake. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Drake −13.5 | 161.5 |
| Model | Drake −14.5 | 156.8 |
| Gap | 1 toward Drake | 4.7 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
South Dakota 1-3WLLL
- Nov 10L 76-87vs Hou ChristianDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 7L 85-87vs FullertonDidn't cover −1.5 · Under 175.5
- Nov 4L 94-102vs N Kentucky
- Nov 2W 95-57vs Mount Marty
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 87.5 and allowing 83.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| South Dakota | Drake | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.7 231st | 106.5 133rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.1 340th | 105.7 125th |
| Possessions a game | 72.6 33rd | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.5% 183rd | 50.0% 219th |
| Opponents' shooting | 56.9% 365th | 51.9% 279th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.4% 351st | 18.8% 270th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.4% 266th | 31.1% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 71st | 0.27 137th |
The widest gap: Drake's offense (133rd) against South Dakota's defense (340th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- South Dakota 33, Drake 41
- First-half margin
- Drake by 8.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.6
- Projected second half
- South Dakota 38, Drake 45
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- South Dakota, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 41.5 scored, 43.5 allowed
- Drake, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 24.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
South Dakota
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince BuzelisG | 29 | 13.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Jahni SummersG | 28 | 12.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 41% · 3+ threes 41% | |||||
| Cade KeldermanG | 26 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Josiah DotzlerG | 24 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Kajus KublickasG | 24 | 9.6 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Stef van BusselC | 21 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 22% | |||||
| Iliam FevryG | 16 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Ethan KizerF | 14 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
Drake
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen LarsonG | 30 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 53% | |||||
| Jon CarrollF | 27 | 16.8 | 8.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 9+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Dre KindellG | 26 | 10.9 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Andrew AliaG | 25 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Justin BurnsF | 25 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 29% | |||||
| Eli ShetlarG | 20 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ ast 44% · 2+ threes 48% | |||||
| Griffen GoodbaryF | 13 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| Dothan IjadimbolaG | 13 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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