Tarleton St at Drake
Monday, November 16, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Knapp Center. Tarleton St our rank 252 · 2-1; Drake our rank 122 · 2-0.
Who will win Tarleton St vs Drake?
The model gives Drake a 86% chance to beat Tarleton State, with a projected score of Drake 81, Tarleton St 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | |||||
| CarrollF · 27 min | 16.2 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 15+ 56% | |
| LarsonG · 30 min | 11.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 10+ 55% | |
| KindellG · 26 min | 10.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 10+ 52% | |
| BurnsF · 25 min | 9.7 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 46% | |
| Tarleton St | |||||
| Kelly IVG · 32 min | 11.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| CopeG · 28 min | 9.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 10+ 46% | |
| EmmouG · 26 min | 8.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 38% | |
| ManiF · 18 min | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 10+ 32% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Dre Kindell: Tarleton St 18%Drake 82%
The white mark is the call with him: Drake 86%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Drake without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake | ||||
| Dre Kindell | 1.8 | 82% | −4 | 69–80 |
| Jon Carroll | 1.4 | 83% | −3 | 69–80 |
| Eli Shetlar | 0.8 | 84% | −2 | 69–81 |
| Owen Larson | 0.7 | 84% | −2 | 69–81 |
Change is in Drake's win chance, in points. Scores read Tarleton St, then Drake. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Tarleton St 2-1WLW
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 84.0 and allowing 71.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tarleton St | Drake | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.0 269th | 106.5 133rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.2 235th | 105.7 125th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 103rd | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.6% 58th | 50.0% 219th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 97th | 51.9% 279th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.6% 244th | 18.8% 270th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.6% 134th | 31.1% 222nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.30 32nd | 0.27 137th |
The widest gap: Drake's defense (125th) against Tarleton St's offense (269th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Tarleton St 32, Drake 39
- First-half margin
- Drake by 6.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.2
- Projected second half
- Tarleton St 37, Drake 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Tarleton St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 42.7 scored, 29.3 allowed
- Drake, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 41.5 scored, 24.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Tarleton St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Kelly IVG | 32 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| TJ CopeG | 28 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 35% | |||||
| Franck EmmouG | 26 | 8.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Adrian ShackletonG | 23 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Kade DouglasG | 21 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Trey HarrisG | 19 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 37% | |||||
| Brett FreemanG | 18 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jac ManiF | 18 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 50% to play · 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
Missed the last game: Jac Mani (20 min a game).
Drake
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen LarsonG | 30 | 11.0 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Jon CarrollF | 27 | 16.2 | 8.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Dre KindellG | 26 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ ast 45% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Andrew AliaG | 25 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Justin BurnsF | 25 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 28% | |||||
| Eli ShetlarG | 20 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Griffen GoodbaryF | 13 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Dothan IjadimbolaG | 13 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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