Richmond at Virginia Tech
Monday, November 16, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Cassell Coliseum. Richmond our rank 121 · 3-1; Virginia Tech our rank 53 · 3-0.
Who will win Richmond vs Virginia Tech?
The model gives Virginia Tech a 91% chance to beat Richmond, with a projected score of Virginia Tech 83, Richmond 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | |||||
| HammondG · 30 min | 19.5 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 20+ 47% | |
| HansberryF · 32 min | 17.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 20+ 38% | |
| CurryG · 28 min | 16.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 15+ 57% | |
| ElohimG · 25 min | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 10+ 57% | |
| Richmond | |||||
| StewartG · 25 min | 13.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 39% | |
| Kaiser Jr.F · 29 min | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 64% | |
| DorriesC · 24 min | 9.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 10+ 45% | |
| BallF · 20 min | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Amani Hansberry: Richmond 16%Virginia Tech 84%
The white mark is the call with him: Virginia Tech 91%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Virginia Tech without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | ||||
| Amani Hansberry | 3.6 | 84% | −7 | 70–81 |
| Ben Hammond | 3.4 | 85% | −6 | 70–81 |
| Jaylen Curry | 2.4 | 87% | −4 | 70–82 |
| Tyler Johnson | 2.2 | 87% | −4 | 70–82 |
| Richmond | ||||
| Jamie Kaiser Jr. | 1.5 | 93% | +2 | 68–84 |
| Aiden Argabright | 1.4 | 93% | +2 | 68–84 |
| Derin Saran | 1.4 | 93% | +2 | 68–84 |
| Andrew Ball | 1.0 | 92% | +1 | 68–84 |
Change is in Virginia Tech's win chance, in points. Scores read Richmond, then Virginia Tech. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Richmond 3-1WWWL
- Nov 12L 70-80at S IllinoisDidn't cover −2.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 8W 79-53vs TempleCovered −1.5 · Under 150.5
- Nov 5W 107-46vs Southern Virginia
- Nov 2W 100-77vs UNC Asheville
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 89.0 and allowing 64.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Richmond | Virginia Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 105.2 158th | 115.8 45th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.3 105th | 100.4 67th |
| Possessions a game | 71.3 121st | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 53.3% 28th | 53.3% 26th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.3% 94th | 49.8% 132nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.8% 267th | 16.5% 27th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.8% 181st | 33.0% 107th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 336th | 0.28 79th |
The widest gap: Virginia Tech's defense (67th) against Richmond's offense (158th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Richmond 32, Virginia Tech 40
- First-half margin
- Virginia Tech by 8.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.1
- Projected second half
- Richmond 37, Virginia Tech 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Richmond, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 45.8 scored, 27.8 allowed
- Virginia Tech, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 46.0 scored, 25.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Richmond
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Kaiser Jr.F | 29 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Derin SaranG | 27 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 51% | |||||
| Aiden ArgabrightG | 26 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ ast 41% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Dominick StewartG | 25 | 13.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Amon DorriesC | 24 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Andrew BallF | 20 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Will Harper IIIG | 14 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Chad CookF | 13 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
Virginia Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani HansberryF | 32 | 17.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 20+ pts 38% · 7+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Ben HammondG | 30 | 19.5 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| 20+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 45% | |||||
| Jaylen CurryG | 28 | 16.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 60% | |||||
| Tyler JohnsonG | 26 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Isaiah ElohimG | 25 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Miles HeideF | 18 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Butta JohnsonG | 17 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Musa SagniaC | 12 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 3+ reb 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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