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Mount St Marys at Virginia Tech

Friday, November 13, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Cassell Coliseum. Mount St Marys our rank 284 · 1-1; Virginia Tech our rank 53 · 3-0.

Who will win Mount St Marys vs Virginia Tech?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Virginia Tech a 99% chance to beat Mount St. Mary's, with a projected score of Virginia Tech 86, Mount St Marys 61. The spread is Virginia Tech −28.5, with an over/under of 150.5. The model makes it Virginia Tech by 25.0, 3.5 points toward Mount St Marys, and projects 147 total points.

To winVirginia Tech 99%Mount St Marys 1%
Projected score61–86Mount St Marys, then Virginia Tech
Margin25.0Virginia Tech · line: Virginia Tech 28.5
Total147.0line: 150.5
First half28–41Virginia Tech ahead 90%
Mount St Marys by 10Evenby 10by 20by 30by 40Virginia Tech by 50Model: Virginia Tech by 25.0Line: Virginia Tech by 28.5Mount St Marys by 10by 10by 30Virginia Tech by 50Model: Virginia Tech by 25.0Line: Virginia Tech by 28.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Virginia Tech
HammondG · 29 min19.42.94.720+ 46%
HansberryF · 30 min17.66.82.920+ 37%
CurryG · 27 min16.33.33.415+ 57%
ElohimG · 24 min11.33.61.010+ 57%
Mount St Marys
Khadre KebeG · 27 min10.35.41.010+ 50%
Thompson Jr.G · 29 min10.22.62.610+ 50%
Jr. ExacteF · 26 min9.75.51.510+ 46%
Arrington Jr.G · 23 min6.82.21.25+ 63%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Amani Hansberry: Mount St Marys 3%Virginia Tech 97%

The white mark is the call with him: Virginia Tech 99%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsVirginia Tech without himChangeProjected score
Virginia Tech
Amani Hansberry3.697%−263–84
Ben Hammond3.497%−263–84
Jaylen Curry2.498%−162–85
Tyler Johnson2.298%−162–85
Mount St Marys
Cade Orness0.799%061–86

Change is in Virginia Tech's win chance, in points. Scores read Mount St Marys, then Virginia Tech. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineVirginia Tech −28.5150.5
ModelVirginia Tech −25147.0
Gap3.5 toward Mount St Marys3.5 lower

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 2 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 51.6% of 3,317 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Mount St Marys 1-1LW

    1. Nov 6W 68-57vs Loyola MDCovered −6.5 · Under 148.5
    2. Nov 2L 52-97at Xavier
    Last 2
    1–1, scoring 60.0 and allowing 77.0
    Against the spread, this season
    1–0
    Totals, this season
    0 over, 1 under

    Virginia Tech 3-0WWW

    1. Nov 10W 93-88vs IowaCovered +3.5 · Over 140.5
    2. Nov 5W 96-67vs MercerCovered −20.5 · Over 154.5
    3. Nov 3W 88-54vs Coppin St
    Last 3
    3–0, scoring 92.3 and allowing 69.7
    Against the spread, this season
    2–0
    Totals, this season
    2 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    Mount St MarysVirginia Tech
    Points scored per 100 possessions95.6 331st115.8 45th
    Points allowed per 100107.9 170th100.4 67th
    Possessions a game71.1 143rd70.7 196th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)47.5% 346th53.3% 26th
    Opponents' shooting49.6% 121st49.8% 132nd
    Turnovers, share of possessions18.4% 216th16.5% 27th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses29.6% 301st33.0% 107th
    Free throws per shot0.24 265th0.28 79th

    The widest gap: Virginia Tech's defense (67th) against Mount St Marys's offense (331st), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Mount St Marys 28, Virginia Tech 41
    First-half margin
    Virginia Tech by 13.7
    First-half points, both teams
    69.0
    Projected second half
    Mount St Marys 33, Virginia Tech 45
    Second-half points, both teams
    78.0
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Mount St Marys, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 2 · 22.5 scored, 36.5 allowed
    Virginia Tech, first halves so far
    Led 2 of 2 · 46.0 scored, 25.5 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Mount St Marys

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Redd Thompson Jr.G2910.22.62.61.7
    10+ pts 50% · 3+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 48%
    Abdou Khadre KebeG2710.35.41.01.4
    10+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 38%
    Wilguens Jr. ExacteF269.75.51.50.9
    10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 56%
    Anthony Arrington Jr.G236.82.21.20.9
    5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 57%
    Yakhya DiopF223.15.50.40.1
    5+ pts 26% · 6+ reb 45%
    Cade OrnessG182.91.30.40.4
    5+ pts 23% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 30%
    Anastasios RozakeasG163.82.10.70.9
    5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57%
    Noah LimolF153.62.80.40.2
    5+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 16%

    Virginia Tech

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Amani HansberryF3017.66.82.91.3
    20+ pts 37% · 7+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 53%
    Ben HammondG2919.42.94.72.2
    20+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 51% · 5+ ast 49%
    Jaylen CurryG2716.33.33.41.4
    15+ pts 57% · 3+ reb 58% · 4+ ast 43%
    Tyler JohnsonG258.35.32.00.7
    10+ pts 36% · 5+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 48%
    Isaiah ElohimG2411.33.61.01.0
    10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 58%
    Miles HeideF185.34.60.80.1
    5+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 19%
    Butta JohnsonG175.81.61.01.0
    5+ pts 54% · 2+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 59%
    Musa SagniaC122.03.00.30.0
    5+ pts 15% · 3+ reb 53%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
    1. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    2. 8 PMprojected 79-75Virginia at Maryland, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    Mount St Marys next: vs Lehigh, Tue, Nov 17 · 61%Virginia Tech next: vs Richmond, Mon, Nov 16 · 91%Mount St Marys: schedule and oddsVirginia Tech: schedule and odds