Lehigh at Mount St Marys
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Knott Arena. Lehigh our rank 290 · 1-2; Mount St Marys our rank 284 · 1-1.
Who will win Lehigh vs Mount St Marys?
The model gives Mount St. Mary's a 61% chance to beat Lehigh, with a projected score of Mount St Marys 71, Lehigh 68.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount St Marys | |||||
| Thompson Jr.G · 31 min | 12.7 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 15+ 35% | |
| Khadre KebeG · 29 min | 12.6 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 10+ 65% | |
| Jr. ExacteF · 28 min | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 10+ 61% | |
| Arrington Jr.G · 24 min | 8.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 34% | |
| Lehigh | |||||
| BenoitF · 26 min | 12.4 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 10+ 65% | |
| AlveyC · 30 min | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 10+ 64% | |
| IngramG · 30 min | 11.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 10+ 60% | |
| TshibolaG · 22 min | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 5+ 64% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Cade Orness: Lehigh 42%Mount St Marys 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Mount St Marys 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Mount St Marys without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount St Marys | ||||
| Cade Orness | 0.7 | 58% | −3 | 69–71 |
| Lehigh | ||||
| Hank Alvey | 1.4 | 65% | +4 | 68–72 |
Change is in Mount St Marys's win chance, in points. Scores read Lehigh, then Mount St Marys. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Lehigh 1-2LWL
- Nov 8L 55-65vs BrownDidn't cover −5.5 · Under 139.5
- Nov 5W 71-64vs CornellCovered +1.5 · Under 159.5
- Nov 2L 67-92at Saint Louis
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 64.3 and allowing 73.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Mount St Marys 1-1LW
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 60.0 and allowing 77.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Lehigh | Mount St Marys | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.3 314th | 95.6 331st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.1 228th | 107.9 170th |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 71.1 143rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 47.0% 354th | 47.5% 346th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.8% 204th | 49.6% 121st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.1% 190th | 18.4% 216th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 26.5% 362nd | 29.6% 301st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 82nd | 0.24 265th |
The widest gap: Mount St Marys's defense (170th) against Lehigh's offense (314th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Lehigh 32, Mount St Marys 34
- First-half margin
- Mount St Marys by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.5
- Projected second half
- Lehigh 36, Mount St Marys 38
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Lehigh, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
- Mount St Marys, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 22.5 scored, 36.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Lehigh
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua IngramG | 30 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 43% | |||||
| Hank AlveyC | 30 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Edouard BenoitF | 26 | 12.4 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jalen VazquezG | 23 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ reb 60% · 2+ ast 54% | |||||
| Chris TshibolaG | 22 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Peter KramerG | 19 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Caleb ThomasG | 16 | 4.2 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ ast 25% · 1+ threes 25% | |||||
| Ralfs RudusansF | 11 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Mount St Marys
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redd Thompson Jr.G | 31 | 12.7 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 4+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 56% | |||||
| Abdou Khadre KebeG | 29 | 12.6 | 6.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Wilguens Jr. ExacteF | 28 | 11.8 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Anthony Arrington Jr.G | 24 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Yakhya DiopF | 23 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 7+ reb 45% | |||||
| Cade OrnessG | 17 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Anastasios RozakeasG | 16 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Noah LimolF | 14 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 17% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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