Who will win Marist vs Lehigh?
The model gives Lehigh a 58% chance to beat Marist, with a projected score of Lehigh 70, Marist 68. The spread is Lehigh −1.5, with an over/under of 132.5. The model makes it Lehigh by 2.3, 0.8 points toward Lehigh, and projects 138 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lehigh | |||||
| BenoitF · 26 min | 12.8 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| AlveyC · 30 min | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 15+ 34% | |
| IngramG · 31 min | 12.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 10+ 62% | |
| TshibolaG · 22 min | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 5+ 65% | |
 Marist | |||||
| ChessG · 30 min | 13.6 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 15+ 40% | |
| GrahamG · 32 min | 11.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 10+ 55% | |
| Collins-RobertsG · 31 min | 10.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 10+ 52% | |
| GabrielC · 25 min | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Hank Alvey: Marist 47%Lehigh 53%
The white mark is the call with him: Lehigh 58%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Lehigh without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lehigh | ||||
| Hank Alvey | 1.4 | 53% | −5 | 69–69 |
Change is in Lehigh's win chance, in points. Scores read Marist, then Lehigh. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Lehigh −1.5 | 132.5 |
| Model | Lehigh −2.3 | 138.0 |
| Gap | 0.8 toward Lehigh | 5.5 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marist | Lehigh | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.6 330th | 97.3 314th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.8 168th | 110.1 228th |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 209th | 47.0% 354th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 176th | 50.8% 204th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.4% 312th | 18.1% 190th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.1% 350th | 26.5% 362nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 48th | 0.28 82nd |
The widest gap: Marist's defense (168th) against Lehigh's offense (314th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marist 32, Lehigh 33
- First-half margin
- Lehigh by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.7
- Projected second half
- Marist 36, Lehigh 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 73.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marist, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 29.7 allowed
- Lehigh, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 31.7 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack GrahamG | 32 | 11.0 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jadin Collins-RobertsG | 31 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Dywane ChessG | 30 | 13.6 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 59% | |||||
| Jordan GabrielC | 25 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Myles ParkerF | 23 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Edward OnyiaF | 16 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Brandon ArnoldG | 16 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Brady MacAdamsG | 14 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Lehigh
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua IngramG | 31 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 5+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Hank AlveyC | 30 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| 15+ pts 34% · 7+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 61% | |||||
| Edouard BenoitF | 26 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Jalen VazquezG | 23 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 3+ reb 40% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Chris TshibolaG | 22 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ ast 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Peter KramerG | 19 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Caleb ThomasG | 16 | 4.3 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 2+ ast 26% · 1+ threes 26% | |||||
| Ralfs RudusansF | 11 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 18% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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