Who won Dartmouth vs Marist?
Final: Dartmouth 69, Marist 62. Before tip-off the model gave Dartmouth a 39% chance to win — an upset, with a projected margin of 3.4 points for Marist. Cameron McNamee scored 12 for Dartmouth; Jadin Collins-Roberts had 13 for Marist.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without CJ Aldrich III: Dartmouth 37%Marist 63%
The white mark is the call with him: Marist 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Marist without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dartmouth | ||||
| CJ Aldrich III | 0.8 | 63% | +2 | 64–68 |
| Jake Pollack | 0.6 | 63% | +2 | 64–68 |
| Anton Strelnikov | 0.6 | 63% | +2 | 64–68 |
| Cameron McNamee | 0.5 | 63% | +2 | 64–68 |
Change is in Marist's win chance, in points. Scores read Dartmouth, then Marist. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Dartmouth
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Marist
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Dartmouth | Marist | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.6 238th | 95.6 330th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.1 175th | 107.8 168th |
| Possessions a game | 71.0 157th | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.3% 123rd | 50.2% 209th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.6% 193rd | 50.4% 176th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.7% 329th | 19.4% 312th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.8% 67th | 28.1% 350th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 186th | 0.29 48th |
The widest gap: Dartmouth's defense (175th) against Marist's offense (330th), of 365 teams.
First half
Marist led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 0.9 points and the total by 8.8.
- At halftime
- Dartmouth 26, Marist 27
- Projected halftime score
- Dartmouth 30, Marist 32
- First-half margin
- Marist by 1.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 61.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Dartmouth
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron McNameeG | 25 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Landon WilliamsG | 24 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Nikola AbusaraG | 23 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Cam HiattG | 22 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Anton StrelnikovC | 19 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Ben BrownG | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Tivnan Jr.F | 17 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| Ernas ValauskasG | 17 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Acen JimenezG | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Marist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jadin Collins-RobertsG | 35 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Dywane ChessG | 30 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Jack GrahamG | 28 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Myles ParkerF | 24 | 13 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| Jordan GabrielC | 21 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Edward OnyiaF | 20 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Brady MacAdamsG | 14 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tarik WatsonC | 12 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon ArnoldG | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |