Who will win Marist vs Army?
The model gives Army a 56% chance to beat Marist, with a projected score of Army 71, Marist 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Army | |||||
| CurryG · 30 min | 11.5 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 10+ 59% | |
| McCarthyG · 27 min | 11.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 10+ 57% | |
| HollowayF · 29 min | 9.8 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 10+ 47% | |
| LaczkowskiF · 25 min | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 5+ 64% | |
 Marist | |||||
| ChessG · 30 min | 13.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 15+ 42% | |
| GrahamG · 32 min | 11.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| Collins-RobertsG · 32 min | 10.8 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| GabrielC · 25 min | 8.2 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
Model against the line
Your call
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Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Marist | Army | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.6 330th | 97.9 304th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.8 168th | 111.3 272nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.4 222nd | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 209th | 48.5% 315th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.4% 176th | 49.1% 71st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.4% 312th | 19.1% 295th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.1% 350th | 33.5% 88th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 48th | 0.22 349th |
The widest gap: Marist's defense (168th) against Army's offense (304th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Marist 32, Army 33
- First-half margin
- Army by 0.9
- First-half points, both teams
- 65.4
- Projected second half
- Marist 37, Army 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 74.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Marist, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.3 scored, 29.7 allowed
- Army, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 29.3 scored, 23.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Marist
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack GrahamG | 32 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jadin Collins-RobertsG | 32 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 5+ reb 43% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Dywane ChessG | 30 | 13.8 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 49% · 2+ threes 41% | |||||
| Jordan GabrielC | 25 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Myles ParkerF | 23 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ threes 40% | |||||
| Edward OnyiaF | 16 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 59% · 2+ ast 17% | |||||
| Brandon ArnoldG | 16 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Brady MacAdamsG | 13 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
Army
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan CurryG | 30 | 11.5 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ ast 59% · 2+ threes 58% | |||||
| Jacen HollowayF | 29 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Kevin McCarthyG | 27 | 11.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 4+ reb 51% · 2+ threes 60% | |||||
| Tate LaczkowskiF | 25 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 6+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Dillon WattG | 18 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 51% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Dylan BennerF | 16 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Patrick McDonoughG | 13 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 35% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Jaden EllisG | 13 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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