Who won Army vs Duke?
Final: Duke 84, Army 50. Before tip-off the model gave Duke a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 41.1 points for Duke. Dame Sarr scored 16 for Duke; Kevin McCarthy had 17 for Army.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Patrick Ngongba II: Army <1%Duke >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Duke >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Duke without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke | ||||
| Patrick Ngongba II | 5.9 | >99% | 0 | 50–85 |
| John Blackwell | 4.9 | >99% | 0 | 50–86 |
| Dame Sarr | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 49–86 |
| Cayden Boozer | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 49–86 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read Army, then Duke. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Army | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.9 304th | 123.4 2nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.3 272nd | 88.5 2nd |
| Possessions a game | 70.2 245th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.5% 315th | 51.7% 97th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.1% 71st | 48.2% 41st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.1% 295th | 18.9% 283rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.5% 88th | 35.9% 10th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.22 349th | 0.31 27th |
The widest gap: Duke's defense (2nd) against Army's offense (304th), of 365 teams.
First half
Duke led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 12.6.
- At halftime
- Army 18, Duke 33
- Projected halftime score
- Army 21, Duke 43
- First-half margin
- Duke by 22.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Army
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacen HollowayF | 36 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan CurryG | 35 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| Kevin McCarthyG | 34 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Tate LaczkowskiF | 31 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Dillon WattG | 27 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaden EllisG | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan BennerF | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Nnaemeka IkechiF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahaan GreenG | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Ngongba IIC | 24 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| John BlackwellG | 24 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Dame SarrF | 21 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Cayden BoozerG | 20 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Deron Rippey Jr.G | 20 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Caleb FosterG | 20 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeC | 19 | 15 | 7 | 0 | 1 |
| Sebastian WilkinsF | 19 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Cameron WilliamsF | 11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |