Who will win SIUE vs Duke?
The model gives Duke a >99% chance to beat SIU Edwardsville, with a projected score of Duke 92, SIUE 54. The spread is Duke −44.5, with an over/under of 148.5. The model makes it Duke by 38.2, 6.3 points toward SIUE, and projects 146 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Duke | |||||
| Ngongba IIC · 26 min | 15.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 15+ 50% | |
| BlackwellG · 26 min | 14.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 15+ 45% | |
| SarrF · 24 min | 10.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 10+ 49% | |
| Boumtje BoumtjeC · 21 min | 9.9 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 10+ 47% | |
 SIUE | |||||
| WilsonF · 24 min | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 5+ 69% | |
| PickettG · 26 min | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 5+ 67% | |
| CobbG · 24 min | 7.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 5+ 65% | |
| McCaskillG · 24 min | 6.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 5+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Patrick Ngongba II: SIUE <1%Duke >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Duke >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Duke without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duke | ||||
| Patrick Ngongba II | 5.9 | >99% | 0 | 57–89 |
| John Blackwell | 4.9 | >99% | 0 | 56–90 |
| Dame Sarr | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 56–90 |
| Cayden Boozer | 4.2 | >99% | 0 | 56–90 |
Change is in Duke's win chance, in points. Scores read SIUE, then Duke. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Duke −44.5 | 148.5 |
| Model | Duke −38.2 | 146.3 |
| Gap | 6.3 toward SIUE | 2.2 lower |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| SIUE | Duke | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 101.0 248th | 123.4 2nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.8 253rd | 88.5 2nd |
| Possessions a game | 69.4 315th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.1% 135th | 51.7% 97th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.0% 285th | 48.2% 41st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 169th | 18.9% 283rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.3% 146th | 35.9% 10th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 281st | 0.31 27th |
The widest gap: Duke's offense (2nd) against SIUE's defense (253rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- SIUE 24, Duke 45
- First-half margin
- Duke by 21.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.6
- Projected second half
- SIUE 30, Duke 47
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- SIUE, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 33.8 scored, 36.2 allowed
- Duke, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 23.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
SIUE
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan PickettG | 26 | 7.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Dehrio McCaskillG | 24 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| David WilsonF | 24 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 32% | |||||
| Gianni CobbG | 24 | 7.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ ast 56% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Darrion BakerF | 20 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Brennan MillerF | 18 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Jayden RileyG | 15 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 26% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Gestin LiberisF | 13 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 46% | |||||
Duke
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John BlackwellG | 26 | 14.4 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| 15+ pts 45% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Patrick Ngongba IIC | 26 | 15.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 8+ reb 47% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Dame SarrF | 24 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Cayden BoozerG | 23 | 9.2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 50% · 5+ ast 51% | |||||
| Joaquim Boumtje BoumtjeC | 21 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Caleb FosterG | 21 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Sebastian WilkinsF | 20 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Deron Rippey Jr.G | 16 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 2+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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