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Probable Stats / Men's / Friday, November 13

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Virginia at Maryland

Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at XFINITY Center. Virginia AP 6, our rank 16 · 4-0; Maryland our rank 56 · 1-1.

Who will win Virginia vs Maryland?

Logged before tip-off; never changed after it.

The model gives Virginia a 62% chance to beat Maryland, with a projected score of Virginia 79, Maryland 75. The spread is Virginia −5.5, with an over/under of 153.5. The model makes it Virginia by 3.5, 2.0 points toward Maryland, and projects 154 total points.

To winVirginia 62%Maryland 38%
Projected score79–75Virginia, then Maryland
Margin3.5Virginia · line: Virginia 5.5
Total154.1line: 153.5
First half37–35Virginia ahead 56%
Virginia by 30by 20by 10Evenby 10by 20Maryland by 30Model: Virginia by 3.5Line: Virginia by 5.5Virginia by 30by 10by 10Maryland by 30Model: Virginia by 3.5Line: Virginia by 5.5

Half of games like thisFour in five

Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.

Players to watch

our projection, not a sportsbook's
PlayerPtsRebAstLast gamesChance of
Virginia
De RidderF · 25 min15.66.52.015+ 52%
LewisG · 27 min12.83.61.715+ 35%
MalloryG · 26 min12.63.14.015+ 34%
GrunlohC · 26 min11.06.21.310+ 55%
Maryland
PayneF · 28 min18.66.90.920+ 42%
MillsG · 23 min13.24.51.415+ 38%
BuljanF · 22 min9.38.21.010+ 43%
WagnerG · 26 min9.02.62.510+ 41%

Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line

The game without one player

Pick a regular to sit him

Without Thijs De Ridder: Virginia 48%Maryland 52%

The white mark is the call with him: Virginia 62%.

PlayerPoints a game he addsVirginia without himChangeProjected score
Virginia
Thijs De Ridder4.248%−1477–77
Johann Grunloh4.048%−1477–77
Chance Mallory3.949%−1377–77
Sam Lewis3.451%−1177–77
Maryland
Tomislav Buljan3.373%+1180–74
Pharrel Payne3.172%+1080–74
DJ Wagner2.470%+880–74
Bishop Boswell2.269%+780–74

Change is in Virginia's win chance, in points. Scores read Virginia, then Maryland. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.

Model against the line

DraftKings · as of 2:23 AM ET
SpreadOver/under
LineVirginia −5.5153.5
ModelVirginia −3.5154.1
Gap2 toward Maryland0.6 higher

A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard

Play-by-play

    Team numbers

    Form

    Each team's last five before this game

    Virginia 4-0WWWW

    1. Nov 10W 95-61vs BucknellDidn't cover −38.5 · Over 151.5
    2. Nov 8W 91-72vs ArkansasCovered −3.5 · Over 162.5
    3. Nov 6W 97-72vs NortheasternDidn't cover −34.5 · Over 159.5
    4. Nov 3W 89-60vs Drexel
    Last 4
    4–0, scoring 93.0 and allowing 66.2
    Against the spread, this season
    1–2
    Totals, this season
    3 over, 0 under

    Maryland 1-1WL

    1. Nov 7L 74-86at GeorgetownDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 146.5
    2. Nov 2W 96-67vs Bucknell
    Last 2
    1–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 76.5
    Against the spread, this season
    0–1
    Totals, this season
    1 over, 0 under

    The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.

    Offense against defense

    Adjusted for opponents · rank of 365
    VirginiaMaryland
    Points scored per 100 possessions119.9 14th115.8 45th
    Points allowed per 10095.9 26th101.4 75th
    Possessions a game70.6 209th70.2 245th
    Shooting (effective field-goal %)52.3% 71st48.8% 300th
    Opponents' shooting50.9% 210th53.6% 345th
    Turnovers, share of possessions18.3% 211th18.3% 211th
    Offensive rebounds, share of misses36.0% 8th39.4% 1st
    Free throws per shot0.23 327th0.28 80th

    The widest gap: Virginia's offense (14th) against Maryland's defense (75th), of 365 teams.

    First half

    Projected from the full-game numbers

    Ahead at halftime

    Projected halftime score
    Virginia 37, Maryland 35
    First-half margin
    Virginia by 1.9
    First-half points, both teams
    72.3
    Projected second half
    Virginia 42, Maryland 40
    Second-half points, both teams
    81.8
    Tied at the half
    4%
    Virginia, first halves so far
    Led 4 of 4 · 47.0 scored, 29.0 allowed
    Maryland, first halves so far
    Led 1 of 2 · 36.0 scored, 37.0 allowed

    Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard

    Player projections

    Each player's projected line for this game

    Virginia

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Sam LewisG2712.83.61.71.8
    15+ pts 35% · 2+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 50%
    Johann GrunlohC2611.06.21.30.7
    10+ pts 55% · 6+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49%
    Chance MalloryG2612.63.14.01.7
    15+ pts 34% · 4+ ast 54% · 2+ threes 48%
    Thijs De RidderF2515.66.52.01.2
    15+ pts 52% · 7+ reb 46% · 2+ ast 55%
    Nolan AdekunleF248.53.91.31.1
    10+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 63%
    Kalu AnyaF132.83.01.50.2
    5+ pts 23% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 42%
    Elijah GertrudeG124.51.91.30.7
    5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 47%
    Jan VideG124.61.71.70.1
    5+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 49%

    Maryland

    PlayerMinPtsRebAst3s
    Pharrel PayneF2818.66.90.90.2
    20+ pts 42% · 7+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 24%
    DJ WagnerG269.02.62.51.2
    10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 44%
    Mike McNair Jr.G237.92.81.31.4
    10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 38%
    Andre MillsG2313.24.51.42.0
    15+ pts 38% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 53%
    Tomislav BuljanF229.38.21.00.1
    10+ pts 43% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 25%
    Bishop BoswellG204.03.02.10.9
    5+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 56%
    Kaden HouseG198.82.61.20.8
    10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 50%
    Baba OladotunF185.23.30.70.4
    5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 30%

    Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done

    Why the model sees it this way

    The game in numbers

    The matchup

    More games on Fri, Nov 13

    All games
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    2. 7 PMprojected 76-83Georgia at North Carolina, men's: game page
    3. 9 PMprojected 81-76Xavier vs Mississippi St, men's: game page
    4. 9 PMprojected 68-74DePaul at Northwestern, men's: game page
    5. 9 PMprojected 76-81Arizona at Auburn, men's: game page
    6. 9 PMprojected 78-76Stanford at UNLV, men's: game page
    Virginia next: vs Old Dominion, Tue, Nov 17 · 99%Maryland next: vs Alcorn St, Mon, Nov 16 · >99%Virginia: schedule and oddsMaryland: schedule and odds