Who will win Alcorn St vs Maryland?
The model gives Maryland a >99% chance to beat Alcorn State, with a projected score of Maryland 95, Alcorn St 61.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Maryland | |||||
| PayneF · 26 min | 20.7 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 20+ 53% | |
| MillsG · 22 min | 15.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 15+ 51% | |
| BuljanF · 22 min | 11.0 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 55% | |
| HouseG · 18 min | 10.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 10+ 52% | |
 Alcorn St | |||||
| ThomasG · 26 min | 12.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 10+ 65% | |
| Sirmans IIIG · 22 min | 7.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 5+ 68% | |
| RichardsonC · 15 min | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 5+ 52% | |
| SunderlandG · 16 min | 5.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5+ 47% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Tomislav Buljan: Alcorn St <1%Maryland >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Maryland >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Maryland without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland | ||||
| Tomislav Buljan | 3.3 | >99% | 0 | 62–93 |
| Pharrel Payne | 3.1 | >99% | 0 | 62–93 |
| DJ Wagner | 2.4 | >99% | 0 | 62–94 |
| Bishop Boswell | 2.2 | >99% | 0 | 62–94 |
Change is in Maryland's win chance, in points. Scores read Alcorn St, then Maryland. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Alcorn St 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 57-94at Murray StDidn't cover +30.5 · Under 165.5
- Nov 5L 83-94vs HowardDidn't cover +9.5 · Over 149.5
- Nov 2L 58-99at Ole Miss
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 66.0 and allowing 95.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Maryland 1-1WL
- Nov 7L 74-86at GeorgetownDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 2W 96-67vs Bucknell
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 85.0 and allowing 76.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alcorn St | Maryland | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.2 336th | 115.8 45th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 120.2 365th | 101.4 75th |
| Possessions a game | 71.4 111th | 70.2 245th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.4% 264th | 48.8% 300th |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.4% 340th | 53.6% 345th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 340th | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.7% 74th | 39.4% 1st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 290th | 0.28 80th |
The widest gap: Maryland's offense (45th) against Alcorn St's defense (365th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Alcorn St 27, Maryland 46
- First-half margin
- Maryland by 18.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.0
- Projected second half
- Alcorn St 34, Maryland 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Alcorn St, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 31.0 scored, 50.0 allowed
- Maryland, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 36.0 scored, 37.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Alcorn St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey ThomasG | 26 | 12.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 59% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Calvin Sirmans IIIG | 22 | 7.4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ ast 49% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jahseem FeltonG | 21 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| Adam TokpahC | 18 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 54% | |||||
| Ma'Kye TaylorF | 18 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 38% | |||||
| Braylhan ThomasG | 16 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Saxby SunderlandG | 16 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Christian RichardsonC | 15 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 47% | |||||
Maryland
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharrel PayneF | 26 | 20.7 | 7.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| 20+ pts 53% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| DJ WagnerG | 25 | 10.2 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Mike McNair Jr.G | 22 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Andre MillsG | 22 | 15.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| Tomislav BuljanF | 22 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 10+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 38% | |||||
| Bishop BoswellG | 19 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 45% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Kaden HouseG | 18 | 10.6 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 49% | |||||
| Baba OladotunF | 18 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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