Western KY at Tulsa
Monday, November 16, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Reynolds Center. Western KY our rank 135 · 3-1; Tulsa our rank 133 · 3-0.
Who will win Western KY vs Tulsa?
The model gives Tulsa a 61% chance to beat Western Kentucky, with a projected score of Tulsa 79, Western KY 76.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa | |||||
| LawalG · 26 min | 16.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 15+ 56% | |
| LoofeF · 27 min | 11.1 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 10+ 56% | |
| RigsbyG · 28 min | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 10+ 48% | |
| WilliamsG · 27 min | 9.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 47% | |
| Western KY | |||||
| MooreG · 25 min | 16.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 15+ 59% | |
| BooneG · 25 min | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 10+ 47% | |
| Erkins-FordF · 20 min | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 10+ 33% | |
| YoungG · 26 min | 7.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5+ 69% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Jaylen Lawal: Western KY 45%Tulsa 55%
The white mark is the call with him: Tulsa 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Tulsa without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tulsa | ||||
| Jaylen Lawal | 1.7 | 55% | −6 | 76–78 |
| Myles Rigsby | 1.5 | 56% | −5 | 76–78 |
| Mike Williams III | 0.9 | 58% | −3 | 76–78 |
| Leon Sifferlin | 0.6 | 59% | −2 | 76–79 |
| Western KY | ||||
| Teagan Moore | 2.0 | 68% | +7 | 75–80 |
| Armelo Boone | 1.2 | 65% | +4 | 75–79 |
| Sharron Young | 1.1 | 65% | +4 | 75–79 |
| LJ Hackman | 0.8 | 64% | +3 | 75–79 |
Change is in Tulsa's win chance, in points. Scores read Western KY, then Tulsa. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Western KY 3-1WWLW
- Nov 11W 78-51vs Campbellsville
- Nov 8L 94-97at Tennessee TechDidn't cover −3.5 · Over 164.5
- Nov 5W 82-48vs Kentucky Wesleyan
- Nov 2W 83-58vs Morehead St
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 84.2 and allowing 63.5
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 0 under
Tulsa 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 80-71vs Oral RobertsDidn't cover −18.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 5W 94-75vs N IllinoisCovered −14.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 2W 98-50vs Ottawa (KS)
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 90.7 and allowing 65.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Western KY | Tulsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.3 193rd | 108.9 104th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 104.4 108th | 109.8 219th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 236th | 51.0% 141st |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 233rd | 50.9% 215th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.7% 45th | 19.1% 296th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.3% 213th | 35.7% 14th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 75th | 0.29 58th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Western KY 35, Tulsa 37
- First-half margin
- Tulsa by 1.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 72.5
- Projected second half
- Western KY 40, Tulsa 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Western KY, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 38.0 scored, 28.5 allowed
- Tulsa, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.0 scored, 26.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Western KY
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharron YoungG | 26 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 56% | |||||
| Teagan MooreG | 25 | 16.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 5+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Armelo BooneG | 25 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 6+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 60% | |||||
| Emondrek Erkins-FordF | 20 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
| EJ WalkerF | 19 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| LJ HackmanG | 19 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Trevion LaBeauxG | 18 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 15% | |||||
| Moussa KonareF | 14 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
Tulsa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles RigsbyG | 28 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 2+ ast 55% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Chris LoofeF | 27 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 8+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
| Kobi WilliamsG | 27 | 9.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Jaylen LawalG | 26 | 16.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
| 15+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ threes 41% | |||||
| Macon EmoryF | 25 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Denton ForsytheG | 20 | 8.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Kaleb BanksF | 16 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Mike Williams IIIG | 13 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 2+ reb 37% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…