Mississippi St v Tulsa
Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Mississippi Coliseum. Mississippi St our rank 51 · 3-0; Tulsa our rank 133 · 3-0.
Who will win Mississippi St vs Tulsa?
The model gives Mississippi State a 87% chance to beat Tulsa, with a projected score of Mississippi St 86, Tulsa 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | |||||
| HubbardG · 27 min | 18.6 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 20+ 42% | |
| JohnsonG · 20 min | 10.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 10+ 50% | |
| HamiltonF · 23 min | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 48% | |
| SimpkinsG · 20 min | 9.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 46% | |
| Tulsa | |||||
| LawalG · 25 min | 14.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 15+ 48% | |
| LoofeF · 27 min | 10.2 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 10+ 49% | |
| RigsbyG · 27 min | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 10+ 42% | |
| WilliamsG · 26 min | 9.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 10+ 42% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Josh Hubbard: Mississippi St 80%Tulsa 20%
The white mark is the call with him: Mississippi St 87%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Mississippi St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | ||||
| Josh Hubbard | 3.3 | 80% | −7 | 85–75 |
| Tajuan Simpkins | 2.7 | 82% | −5 | 85–75 |
| Kimani Hamilton | 2.2 | 83% | −4 | 85–74 |
| RJ Johnson | 2.0 | 83% | −4 | 85–74 |
| Tulsa | ||||
| Jaylen Lawal | 1.7 | 90% | +3 | 87–72 |
| Myles Rigsby | 1.5 | 90% | +3 | 87–73 |
| Mike Williams III | 0.9 | 89% | +2 | 87–73 |
| Leon Sifferlin | 0.6 | 89% | +2 | 87–73 |
Change is in Mississippi St's win chance, in points. Scores read Mississippi St, then Tulsa. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Mississippi St 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 98-57vs Jackson StCovered −24.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 5W 82-44vs N'Western StCovered −21.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 106-88vs Tennessee Tech
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.3 and allowing 63.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Tulsa 3-0WWW
- Nov 11W 80-71vs Oral RobertsDidn't cover −18.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 5W 94-75vs N IllinoisCovered −14.5 · Over 154.5
- Nov 2W 98-50vs Ottawa (KS)
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 90.7 and allowing 65.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Mississippi St | Tulsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 116.1 36th | 108.9 104th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.3 64th | 109.8 219th |
| Possessions a game | 71.9 73rd | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.7% 53rd | 51.0% 141st |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.9% 139th | 50.9% 215th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 163rd | 19.1% 296th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 36.4% 4th | 35.7% 14th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 205th | 0.29 58th |
The widest gap: Mississippi St's offense (36th) against Tulsa's defense (219th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Mississippi St 41, Tulsa 34
- First-half margin
- Mississippi St by 7.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 74.9
- Projected second half
- Mississippi St 45, Tulsa 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 84.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Mississippi St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 51.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
- Tulsa, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 45.0 scored, 26.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Mississippi St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh HubbardG | 27 | 18.6 | 1.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 |
| 20+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 46% · 4+ ast 56% | |||||
| Kimani HamiltonF | 23 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Thomas BassongF | 21 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| RJ JohnsonG | 20 | 10.2 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 2+ reb 60% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Tajuan SimpkinsG | 20 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| ND OkaforC | 17 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| King GraceG | 16 | 9.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Kendyl SandersF | 15 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
Tulsa
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles RigsbyG | 27 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Chris LoofeF | 27 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Kobi WilliamsG | 26 | 9.1 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| Jaylen LawalG | 25 | 14.9 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Macon EmoryF | 24 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 62% | |||||
| Denton ForsytheG | 20 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Kaleb BanksF | 16 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 2+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mike Williams IIIG | 13 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 36% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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