Tennessee Tech 88, Mississippi St 106
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Humphrey Coliseum. Tennessee Tech our rank 244 · 2-2; Mississippi St our rank 51 · 3-0.
Who won Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi St?
Final: Mississippi State 106, Tennessee Tech 88. Before tip-off the model gave Mississippi State a 97% chance to win, with a projected margin of 23.1 points for Mississippi State. Josh Hubbard scored 25 for Mississippi St; Caleb Sanders had 28 for Tennessee Tech.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Josh Hubbard: Tennessee Tech 5%Mississippi St 95%
The white mark is the call with him: Mississippi St 97%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Mississippi St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi St | ||||
| Josh Hubbard | 3.3 | 95% | −2 | 59–79 |
| Tajuan Simpkins | 2.7 | 95% | −2 | 59–79 |
| Kimani Hamilton | 2.2 | 96% | −1 | 59–80 |
| RJ Johnson | 2.0 | 96% | −1 | 59–80 |
| Tennessee Tech | ||||
| Caleb Sanders | 0.6 | 97% | 0 | 57–81 |
Change is in Mississippi St's win chance, in points. Scores read Tennessee Tech, then Mississippi St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Tennessee Tech
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Mississippi St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Tennessee Tech | Mississippi St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 103.8 186th | 116.1 36th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 113.4 315th | 100.3 64th |
| Possessions a game | 72.4 39th | 71.9 73rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.6% 100th | 52.7% 53rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 53.4% 342nd | 49.9% 139th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.9% 159th | 17.9% 163rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.5% 141st | 36.4% 4th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 126th | 0.26 205th |
The widest gap: Mississippi St's offense (36th) against Tennessee Tech's defense (315th), of 365 teams.
First half
Mississippi St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.3 points and the total by 25.2.
- At halftime
- Tennessee Tech 37, Mississippi St 53
- Projected halftime score
- Tennessee Tech 26, Mississippi St 39
- First-half margin
- Mississippi St by 12.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 64.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Tennessee Tech
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb SandersF | 33 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Trent MosqueraG | 32 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Ty OwensG | 26 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| Cbo NewtonG | 24 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| De'Ante GreenF | 23 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Caleb HollenbeckG | 22 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 |
| Kamai SamuelsG | 16 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Shaun ArnoldF | 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Davante HackettG | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Mississippi St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tajuan SimpkinsG | 32 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 1 |
| Josh HubbardG | 31 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 3 |
| Kimani HamiltonF | 30 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Thomas BassongF | 23 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| King GraceG | 23 | 23 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| RJ JohnsonG | 21 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Jalyn CollingwoodG | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kendyl SandersF | 10 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Tristan ReedC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |