Who will win Kentucky vs Indiana?
The model gives Kentucky a 53% chance to beat Indiana, with a projected score of Kentucky 79, Indiana 78.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kentucky | |||||
| DialloG · 29 min | 16.7 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 15+ 59% | |
| MomcilovicF · 33 min | 13.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 15+ 40% | |
| WilkinsG · 27 min | 13.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 15+ 40% | |
| MorenoC · 25 min | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 10+ 51% | |
 Indiana | |||||
| BurtonG · 27 min | 13.9 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| LindsayG · 24 min | 12.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 10+ 62% | |
| HarrisG · 27 min | 11.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 56% | |
| MustafG · 29 min | 10.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 10+ 54% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Milan Momcilovic: Kentucky 35%Indiana 65%
The white mark is the call with him: Kentucky 53%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kentucky without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | ||||
| Milan Momcilovic | 4.9 | 35% | −18 | 76–80 |
| Malachi Moreno | 3.5 | 40% | −13 | 77–80 |
| Zoom Diallo | 3.3 | 41% | −12 | 77–79 |
| Alex Wilkins | 1.8 | 46% | −7 | 78–79 |
| Indiana | ||||
| Aiden Sherrell | 3.7 | 68% | +15 | 81–76 |
| Darren Harris | 2.6 | 64% | +11 | 80–76 |
| Markus Burton | 2.5 | 63% | +10 | 80–77 |
| Sam Alexis | 2.3 | 63% | +10 | 80–77 |
Change is in Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read Kentucky, then Indiana. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Kentucky 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 69-89vs KansasDidn't cover +4.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 6W 89-80vs James MadisonDidn't cover −24.5 · Over 156.5
- Nov 3W 85-57vs Manhattan
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 81.0 and allowing 75.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Indiana 4-0WWWW
- Nov 12W 90-66vs Tennessee TechDidn't cover −25.5 · Under 167.5
- Nov 9W 83-80vs SyracuseDidn't cover −5.5 · Over 146.5
- Nov 5W 92-69vs BellarmineDidn't cover −30.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 2W 91-57vs E Illinois
- Last 4
- 4–0, scoring 89.0 and allowing 68.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–3
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Kentucky | Indiana | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 118.2 19th | 116.0 39th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 100.3 65th | 99.4 49th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 133rd | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.8% 49th | 51.2% 133rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.6% 191st | 51.3% 244th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.3% 211th | 17.9% 165th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 169th | 35.4% 18th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 300th | 0.30 32nd |
The widest gap: Kentucky's offense (19th) against Indiana's defense (49th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Kentucky 37, Indiana 36
- First-half margin
- Kentucky by 0.5
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.4
- Projected second half
- Kentucky 42, Indiana 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 35.7 allowed
- Indiana, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 42.2 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan MomcilovicF | 33 | 13.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 54% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Zoom DialloG | 29 | 16.7 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Alex WilkinsG | 27 | 13.5 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 40% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Malachi MorenoC | 25 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 8+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Justin McBrideF | 19 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 63% | |||||
| Mason WilliamsG | 19 | 6.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Ousmane N'DiayeF | 17 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 40% | |||||
| Braydon HawthorneF | 17 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Indiana
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaeden MustafG | 29 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
| Markus BurtonG | 27 | 13.9 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 44% · 4+ ast 52% | |||||
| Darren HarrisG | 27 | 11.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Aiden SherrellF | 26 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 6+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Bryce LindsayG | 24 | 12.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 46% | |||||
| Samet YigitogluC | 21 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 33% | |||||
| Sam AlexisF | 18 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 20% | |||||
| Trevor ManhertzF | 14 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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