Who will win N Arizona vs Kentucky?
The model gives Kentucky a 99% chance to beat Northern Arizona, with a projected score of Kentucky 93, N Arizona 65. The spread is Kentucky −35.5, with an over/under of 155.5. The model makes it Kentucky by 28.1, 7.4 points toward N Arizona, and projects 157 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kentucky | |||||
| DialloG · 27 min | 17.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 20+ 37% | |
| WilkinsG · 25 min | 14.5 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 15+ 46% | |
| MomcilovicF · 30 min | 14.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 15+ 43% | |
| MorenoC · 24 min | 11.3 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 10+ 57% | |
 N Arizona | |||||
| KominG · 32 min | 14.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 15+ 47% | |
| AbelmanG · 30 min | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 10+ 55% | |
| ToukamF · 26 min | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 44% | |
| GreenF · 16 min | 5.0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 5+ 45% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Milan Momcilovic: N Arizona 2%Kentucky 98%
The white mark is the call with him: Kentucky 99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kentucky without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | ||||
| Milan Momcilovic | 4.9 | 98% | −1 | 67–90 |
| Malachi Moreno | 3.5 | 99% | 0 | 66–91 |
| Zoom Diallo | 3.3 | 99% | 0 | 66–91 |
| Alex Wilkins | 1.8 | 99% | 0 | 66–92 |
Change is in Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read N Arizona, then Kentucky. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Kentucky −35.5 | 155.5 |
| Model | Kentucky −28.1 | 157.4 |
| Gap | 7.4 toward N Arizona | 1.9 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N Arizona | Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.1 179th | 118.2 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 118.5 362nd | 100.3 65th |
| Possessions a game | 68.6 353rd | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.9% 45th | 52.8% 49th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.9% 280th | 50.6% 191st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 20.1% 345th | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 166th | 31.9% 169th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 60th | 0.24 300th |
The widest gap: Kentucky's offense (19th) against N Arizona's defense (362nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N Arizona 29, Kentucky 45
- First-half margin
- Kentucky by 15.4
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.9
- Projected second half
- N Arizona 35, Kentucky 48
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N Arizona, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 45.0 allowed
- Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N Arizona
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris KominG | 32 | 14.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 15+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 49% · 3+ ast 54% | |||||
| Ryan AbelmanG | 30 | 10.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 2.5 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 4+ reb 49% · 3+ threes 42% | |||||
| Lucas ToukamF | 26 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 49% | |||||
| Max MajerleG | 26 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Dylan AndersonF | 21 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 39% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tamiel GreenF | 16 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 59% | |||||
| Cade BennettG | 16 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 21% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan MomcilovicF | 30 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Zoom DialloG | 27 | 17.7 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 43% | |||||
| Alex WilkinsG | 25 | 14.5 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 51% · 4+ ast 53% | |||||
| Malachi MorenoC | 24 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 57% · 8+ reb 54% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Justin McBrideF | 19 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 40% | |||||
| Mason WilliamsG | 18 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Ousmane N'DiayeF | 18 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Braydon HawthorneF | 17 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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