Who will win Grambling vs Kentucky?
The model gives Kentucky a >99% chance to beat Grambling, with a projected score of Kentucky 94, Grambling 63.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kentucky | |||||
| DialloG · 26 min | 17.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 20+ 37% | |
| WilkinsG · 25 min | 14.5 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 15+ 46% | |
| MomcilovicF · 29 min | 14.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 15+ 43% | |
| MorenoC · 24 min | 11.4 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 10+ 58% | |
 Grambling | |||||
| MirandaF · 22 min | 11.7 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 10+ 60% | |
| PierceG · 28 min | 9.6 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 10+ 45% | |
| FittsF · 22 min | 8.2 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 10+ 35% | |
| HowardG · 21 min | 7.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 31% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Milan Momcilovic: Grambling 1%Kentucky 99%
The white mark is the call with him: Kentucky >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Kentucky without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | ||||
| Milan Momcilovic | 4.9 | 99% | −1 | 66–91 |
| Malachi Moreno | 3.5 | 99% | −1 | 65–92 |
| Zoom Diallo | 3.3 | 99% | −1 | 65–92 |
| Alex Wilkins | 1.8 | 99% | −1 | 64–93 |
Change is in Kentucky's win chance, in points. Scores read Grambling, then Kentucky. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Grambling 1-1WL
- Nov 9L 62-93at TexasCovered +37.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 89-87vs N Illinois
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 75.5 and allowing 90.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Grambling | Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 98.8 291st | 118.2 19th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 115.0 339th | 100.3 65th |
| Possessions a game | 71.2 133rd | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.1% 81st | 52.8% 49th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.1% 226th | 50.6% 191st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.0% 61st | 18.3% 211th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 231st | 31.9% 169th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 164th | 0.24 300th |
The widest gap: Kentucky's offense (19th) against Grambling's defense (339th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Grambling 28, Kentucky 45
- First-half margin
- Kentucky by 16.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.7
- Projected second half
- Grambling 35, Kentucky 49
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Grambling, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.0 scored, 45.5 allowed
- Kentucky, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 41.0 scored, 35.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Grambling
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne PierceG | 28 | 9.6 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Brandon HardyG | 25 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 45% · 2+ reb 60% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| Mekhi FittsF | 22 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
| Isaiah MirandaF | 22 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 65% | |||||
| Antonio ShannonG | 22 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 64% | |||||
| Isaiah HowardG | 21 | 7.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 31% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Antoine ShannonG | 20 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Hassan WashingtonF | 14 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 24% · 2+ reb 57% | |||||
Kentucky
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan MomcilovicF | 29 | 14.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 56% · 3+ threes 49% | |||||
| Zoom DialloG | 26 | 17.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 20+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 43% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Alex WilkinsG | 25 | 14.5 | 1.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 46% · 2+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Malachi MorenoC | 24 | 11.4 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 8+ reb 55% · 3+ ast 51% | |||||
| Justin McBrideF | 19 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Mason WilliamsG | 18 | 7.6 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ ast 52% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Ousmane N'DiayeF | 18 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Braydon HawthorneF | 17 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 47% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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