Southern Miss at Grambling
Thursday, November 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at Fredrick C. Hobdy Assembly Center. Southern Miss our rank 225 · 2-1; Grambling our rank 325 · 1-1.
Who will win Southern Miss vs Grambling?
The model gives Southern Miss a 64% chance to beat Grambling, with a projected score of Southern Miss 78, Grambling 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | |||||
| Gaines-WyattG · 30 min | 15.2 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 15+ 50% | |
| WestonG · 27 min | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 10+ 64% | |
| TaverasG · 25 min | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 10+ 62% | |
| WallaceF · 22 min | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 58% | |
| Grambling | |||||
| MirandaF · 23 min | 13.8 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 15+ 42% | |
| PierceG · 30 min | 12.0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 10+ 62% | |
| FittsF · 24 min | 9.9 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 10+ 47% | |
| HowardG · 22 min | 9.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 10+ 41% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaac Taveras: Southern Miss 60%Grambling 40%
The white mark is the call with him: Southern Miss 64%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Southern Miss without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | ||||
| Isaac Taveras | 1.1 | 60% | −4 | 77–74 |
| Brandon Weston | 0.6 | 62% | −2 | 77–74 |
Change is in Southern Miss's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern Miss, then Grambling. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern Miss 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 84-80vs Jackson StDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6L 57-83at Iowa StateCovered +30.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2W 82-35vs Tougaloo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.3 and allowing 66.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Grambling 1-1WL
- Nov 9L 62-93at TexasCovered +37.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 2W 89-87vs N Illinois
- Last 2
- 1–1, scoring 75.5 and allowing 90.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern Miss | Grambling | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.4 260th | 98.8 291st |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.3 180th | 115.0 339th |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 95th | 71.2 133rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 282nd | 52.1% 81st |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.8% 275th | 51.1% 226th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.3% 306th | 17.0% 61st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 101st | 31.0% 231st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 83rd | 0.26 164th |
The widest gap: Southern Miss's defense (180th) against Grambling's offense (291st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern Miss 37, Grambling 34
- First-half margin
- Southern Miss by 2.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.8
- Projected second half
- Southern Miss 41, Grambling 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern Miss, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 32.7 allowed
- Grambling, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 2 · 35.0 scored, 45.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern Miss
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalyke Gaines-WyattG | 30 | 15.2 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 4+ ast 48% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Anthony IgiedeG | 28 | 10.6 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Brandon WestonG | 27 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Isaac TaverasG | 25 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Cameron WallaceF | 22 | 11.4 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Mike MontanoF | 19 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 48% · 4+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Max BlankC | 15 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 31% · 4+ reb 41% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Chandler WattsG | 13 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 2+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Grambling
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwayne PierceG | 30 | 12.0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 52% · 4+ ast 49% | |||||
| Brandon HardyG | 27 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 3+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Mekhi FittsF | 24 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 5+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
| Isaiah MirandaF | 23 | 13.8 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 5+ reb 56% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Antonio ShannonG | 23 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 37% | |||||
| Isaiah HowardG | 22 | 9.1 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ ast 58% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Antoine ShannonG | 20 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Chancellor PerkinsG | 12 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 19% · 2+ reb 43% · 1+ threes 20% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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