Southern Miss at Texas St
Friday, November 13, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Strahan Arena at the University Events Center. Southern Miss our rank 225 · 2-1; Texas St our rank 142 · 3-0.
Who will win Southern Miss vs Texas St?
The model gives Texas State a 74% chance to beat Southern Miss, with a projected score of Texas St 78, Southern Miss 70. The spread is Texas St −11.5, with an over/under of 142.5. The model makes it Texas St by 7.5, 4.0 points toward Southern Miss, and projects 148 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | |||||
| HallF · 27 min | 15.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 15+ 50% | |
| DjobetF · 27 min | 15.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 15+ 50% | |
| PernellG · 23 min | 11.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 56% | |
| FieldsC · 24 min | 10.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 54% | |
| Southern Miss | |||||
| Gaines-WyattG · 30 min | 13.9 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 15+ 42% | |
| WestonG · 27 min | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 10+ 58% | |
| TaverasG · 24 min | 11.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 10+ 56% | |
| WallaceF · 22 min | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 10+ 51% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without DJ Hall: Southern Miss 30%Texas St 70%
The white mark is the call with him: Texas St 74%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Texas St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | ||||
| DJ Hall | 1.6 | 70% | −4 | 71–77 |
| Quel'Ron House | 1.1 | 71% | −3 | 71–77 |
| Paul Djobet | 1.1 | 71% | −3 | 71–77 |
| Southern Miss | ||||
| Isaac Taveras | 1.1 | 78% | +4 | 70–78 |
| Brandon Weston | 0.6 | 76% | +2 | 70–78 |
Change is in Texas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Southern Miss, then Texas St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | Texas St −11.5 | 142.5 |
| Model | Texas St −7.5 | 148.0 |
| Gap | 4 toward Southern Miss | 5.5 higher |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. When the model and the line have been 4 or more points apart, the model's side has covered 48.4% of 702 games. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Southern Miss 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 84-80vs Jackson StDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6L 57-83at Iowa StateCovered +30.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2W 82-35vs Tougaloo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.3 and allowing 66.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Texas St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 72-65at UT Rio GrandeCovered −5.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 5W 135-66vs Howard Payne
- Nov 2W 67-55vs Texas A&M-CC
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.3 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Southern Miss | Texas St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.4 260th | 106.1 142nd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.3 180th | 108.1 176th |
| Possessions a game | 71.6 95th | 69.6 302nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.1% 282nd | 52.4% 63rd |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.8% 275th | 50.1% 157th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.3% 306th | 19.2% 304th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 101st | 33.1% 104th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 83rd | 0.26 173rd |
The widest gap: Texas St's defense (176th) against Southern Miss's offense (260th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Southern Miss 33, Texas St 37
- First-half margin
- Texas St by 4.1
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.4
- Projected second half
- Southern Miss 38, Texas St 41
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Southern Miss, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 32.7 allowed
- Texas St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Southern Miss
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalyke Gaines-WyattG | 30 | 13.9 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 42% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 44% | |||||
| Anthony IgiedeG | 28 | 9.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ ast 50% | |||||
| Brandon WestonG | 27 | 11.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Isaac TaverasG | 24 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 6+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Cameron WallaceF | 22 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 5+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Mike MontanoF | 19 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 4+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Max BlankC | 16 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 28% · 3+ reb 56% | |||||
| Chandler WattsG | 13 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
Texas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ HallF | 27 | 15.2 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 7+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Paul DjobetF | 27 | 15.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kaden GumbsG | 25 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 50% · 4+ ast 41% | |||||
| Robert FieldsC | 24 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Dimp PernellG | 23 | 11.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Quel'Ron HouseG | 16 | 6.9 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 53% | |||||
| KJ YoungerG | 13 | 7.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 55% | |||||
| David AbisogunF | 11 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 18% · 2+ reb 59% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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