Who will win Texas St vs UTSA?
The model gives Texas State a 61% chance to beat UTSA, with a projected score of Texas St 77, UTSA 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas St | |||||
| DjobetF · 27 min | 15.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 15+ 50% | |
| HallF · 28 min | 15.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 15+ 50% | |
| PernellG · 23 min | 11.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 10+ 56% | |
| FieldsC · 24 min | 10.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 10+ 54% | |
 UTSA | |||||
| TennerG · 30 min | 13.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 15+ 36% | |
| LeGreeG · 20 min | 10.4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 10+ 51% | |
| TurnerG · 22 min | 8.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 10+ 39% | |
| ColemanG · 19 min | 8.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 10+ 35% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without DJ Hall: Texas St 56%UTSA 44%
The white mark is the call with him: Texas St 61%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Texas St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas St | ||||
| DJ Hall | 1.6 | 56% | −5 | 76–75 |
| Quel'Ron House | 1.1 | 57% | −4 | 77–75 |
| Paul Djobet | 1.1 | 57% | −4 | 77–75 |
| UTSA | ||||
| Isaiah Coleman | 0.7 | 63% | +2 | 78–74 |
Change is in Texas St's win chance, in points. Scores read Texas St, then UTSA. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Texas St 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 72-65at UT Rio GrandeCovered −5.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 5W 135-66vs Howard Payne
- Nov 2W 67-55vs Texas A&M-CC
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 91.3 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Texas St | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 106.1 142nd | 102.1 219th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 108.1 176th | 111.6 280th |
| Possessions a game | 69.6 302nd | 71.5 103rd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 52.4% 63rd | 51.2% 131st |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 157th | 50.1% 152nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.2% 304th | 16.8% 51st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 33.1% 104th | 30.5% 262nd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 173rd | 0.23 321st |
The widest gap: Texas St's offense (142nd) against UTSA's defense (280th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Texas St 36, UTSA 35
- First-half margin
- Texas St by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.0
- Projected second half
- Texas St 41, UTSA 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 80.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Texas St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 43.0 scored, 28.0 allowed
- UTSA, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 33.0 scored, 34.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Texas St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ HallF | 28 | 15.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 7+ reb 51% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Paul DjobetF | 27 | 15.3 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 50% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Kaden GumbsG | 25 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 54% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
| Robert FieldsC | 24 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Dimp PernellG | 23 | 11.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 2+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 43% | |||||
| Quel'Ron HouseG | 16 | 6.8 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 63% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| KJ YoungerG | 13 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 64% · 2+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| David AbisogunF | 11 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 17% · 2+ reb 57% | |||||
UTSA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ TennerG | 30 | 13.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 49% · 4+ ast 48% | |||||
| Isaiah WattsG | 23 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Preston TurnerG | 22 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 59% | |||||
| JJ KellyG | 22 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 3+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Josiah LeGreeG | 20 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 3+ ast 57% · 2+ threes 45% | |||||
| Isaiah ColemanG | 19 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Shey EberweinG | 16 | 7.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 2+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Mike Broxton Jr.F | 16 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 16% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
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