UTSA 74, San José St 95
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 3:00 PM ET at Provident Credit Union Event Center. UTSA our rank 243 · 2-1; San José St our rank 160 · 1-2.
Who won UTSA vs San José St?
Final: San José State 95, UTSA 74. Before tip-off the model gave San José State a 84% chance to win, with a projected margin of 12.3 points for San José State. Joey Chammaa scored 27 for San José St; Preston Turner had 15 for UTSA.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Joey Chammaa: UTSA 19%San José St 81%
The white mark is the call with him: San José St 84%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | San José St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José St | ||||
| Joey Chammaa | 1.3 | 81% | −3 | 62–73 |
| Mekhi Mason | 1.2 | 82% | −2 | 62–73 |
| Robert Vaihola | 0.9 | 82% | −2 | 62–74 |
| KJ Martin Jr. | 0.8 | 82% | −2 | 62–74 |
| UTSA | ||||
| Isaiah Coleman | 0.7 | 86% | +2 | 61–74 |
Change is in San José St's win chance, in points. Scores read UTSA, then San José St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
UTSA
No games yet this season: this is its first.
San José St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UTSA | San José St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 102.1 219th | 106.9 128th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.6 280th | 110.1 228th |
| Possessions a game | 71.5 103rd | 70.5 215th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.2% 131st | 55.1% 5th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 152nd | 54.0% 351st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 16.8% 51st | 21.0% 359th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 30.5% 262nd | 31.0% 229th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.23 321st | 0.27 152nd |
The widest gap: San José St's offense (128th) against UTSA's defense (280th), of 365 teams.
First half
San José St led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 11.3 points and the total by 8.3.
- At halftime
- UTSA 27, San José St 45
- Projected halftime score
- UTSA 28, San José St 35
- First-half margin
- San José St by 6.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
UTSA
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KJ TennerG | 31 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Isaiah WattsG | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Jayson PetersonF | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston TurnerG | 20 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Shey EberweinG | 19 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| JJ KellyG | 18 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| Josiah LeGreeG | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Isaiah ColemanG | 13 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Demari WilliamsG | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
San José St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey ChammaaG | 36 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| Mekhi MasonG | 31 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| JaVaughn HannahG | 29 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Robert VaiholaF | 27 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 0 |
| KJ Martin Jr.F | 20 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Mookie CookF | 20 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 |
| Oliver KullamaeG | 15 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Zine Eddine BedriF | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Rokiem GreenG | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |