Alabama St at San José St
Sunday, November 15, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Provident Credit Union Event Center. Alabama St our rank 333 · 1-2; San José St our rank 160 · 1-2.
Who will win Alabama St vs San José St?
The model gives San José State a 89% chance to beat Alabama State, with a projected score of San José St 83, Alabama St 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José St | |||||
| ChammaaG · 31 min | 18.3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 20+ 40% | |
| MasonG · 28 min | 15.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 15+ 54% | |
| HannahG · 28 min | 10.1 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 10+ 49% | |
| CookF · 22 min | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 10+ 40% | |
| Alabama St | |||||
| McMillan IVG · 31 min | 15.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 15+ 49% | |
| JamesG · 31 min | 12.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 15+ 36% | |
| HamptonF · 23 min | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| PowellG · 20 min | 8.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Joey Chammaa: Alabama St 14%San José St 86%
The white mark is the call with him: San José St 89%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | San José St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José St | ||||
| Joey Chammaa | 1.3 | 86% | −3 | 70–83 |
| Mekhi Mason | 1.2 | 87% | −2 | 70–83 |
| Robert Vaihola | 0.9 | 87% | −2 | 70–83 |
| KJ Martin Jr. | 0.8 | 87% | −2 | 70–83 |
Change is in San José St's win chance, in points. Scores read Alabama St, then San José St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Alabama St 1-2LLW
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 69.7 and allowing 78.7
San José St 1-2WLL
- Nov 12L 75-80vs UC RiversideDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 7L 79-91at UC IrvineDidn't cover +8.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 2W 95-74vs UTSA
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 83.0 and allowing 81.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Alabama St | San José St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 95.7 328th | 106.9 128th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.4 298th | 110.1 228th |
| Possessions a game | 72.3 49th | 70.5 215th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.7% 239th | 55.1% 5th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 157th | 54.0% 351st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 334th | 21.0% 359th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.8% 116th | 31.0% 229th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 224th | 0.27 152nd |
The widest gap: San José St's offense (128th) against Alabama St's defense (298th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Alabama St 32, San José St 40
- First-half margin
- San José St by 7.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 71.7
- Projected second half
- Alabama St 37, San José St 44
- Second-half points, both teams
- 81.1
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Alabama St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 31.7 scored, 34.7 allowed
- San José St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Alabama St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul McMillan IVG | 31 | 15.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 44% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Mike JamesG | 31 | 12.9 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Damarion BondsG | 25 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 6+ reb 52% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
| Terrance HamptonF | 23 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Tre PowellG | 20 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 55% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
| Trey MillerG | 18 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 43% · 2+ ast 41% | |||||
| Isaiah BarganierF | 17 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 23% | |||||
| Marquintez DixonF | 17 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 35% · 4+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 18% | |||||
Missed the last game: Joseph Scott (18 min a game).
San José St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey ChammaaG | 31 | 18.3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 40% · 4+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mekhi MasonG | 28 | 15.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 42% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| JaVaughn HannahG | 28 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Robert VaiholaF | 26 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 37% · 8+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 32% | |||||
| Mookie CookF | 22 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| KJ Martin Jr.F | 21 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Oliver KullamaeG | 17 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 44% · 2+ ast 48% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Zine Eddine BedriF | 14 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 48% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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