Fresno St at San José St
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Provident Credit Union Event Center. Fresno St our rank 230 · 2-1; San José St our rank 160 · 1-2.
Who will win Fresno St vs San José St?
The model gives San José State a 73% chance to beat Fresno State, with a projected score of San José St 81, Fresno St 75.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 70–80% have been right 74.5% of the time in 14,414 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José St | |||||
| ChammaaG · 32 min | 18.4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 20+ 41% | |
| MasonG · 28 min | 15.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 15+ 54% | |
| HannahG · 28 min | 10.1 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 10+ 49% | |
| CookF · 23 min | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 10+ 40% | |
| Fresno St | |||||
| LunguG · 33 min | 16.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 15+ 57% | |
| CandelinoG · 36 min | 14.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 15+ 48% | |
| AmunekeG · 32 min | 12.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 15+ 35% | |
| HenigeF · 29 min | 11.8 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 10+ 61% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Joey Chammaa: Fresno St 31%San José St 69%
The white mark is the call with him: San José St 73%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | San José St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José St | ||||
| Joey Chammaa | 1.3 | 69% | −4 | 75–81 |
| Mekhi Mason | 1.2 | 69% | −4 | 75–81 |
| Robert Vaihola | 0.9 | 70% | −3 | 75–81 |
| KJ Martin Jr. | 0.8 | 70% | −3 | 75–81 |
| Fresno St | ||||
| Bradey Henige | 0.7 | 75% | +2 | 74–82 |
| Ross Candelino | 0.6 | 75% | +2 | 74–82 |
Change is in San José St's win chance, in points. Scores read Fresno St, then San José St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Fresno St 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 95-92vs Georgia StDidn't cover −5.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 7L 65-81at UC San DiegoDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 88-79vs Fresno Pacific
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.7 and allowing 84.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
San José St 1-2WLL
- Nov 12L 75-80vs UC RiversideDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 7L 79-91at UC IrvineDidn't cover +8.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 2W 95-74vs UTSA
- Last 3
- 1–2, scoring 83.0 and allowing 81.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Fresno St | San José St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 104.4 173rd | 106.9 128th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 112.6 301st | 110.1 228th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 70.5 215th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.2% 208th | 55.1% 5th |
| Opponents' shooting | 52.5% 310th | 54.0% 351st |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.0% 64th | 21.0% 359th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 157th | 31.0% 229th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.24 283rd | 0.27 152nd |
The widest gap: San José St's offense (128th) against Fresno St's defense (301st), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Fresno St 35, San José St 39
- First-half margin
- San José St by 3.8
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.2
- Projected second half
- Fresno St 40, San José St 43
- Second-half points, both teams
- 82.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Fresno St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
- San José St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.7 scored, 38.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Fresno St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Fabrega UrpinaG | 37 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 56% · 4+ reb 49% · 5+ ast 55% | |||||
| Ross CandelinoG | 36 | 14.8 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 6+ reb 50% · 3+ threes 46% | |||||
| Dragos LunguG | 33 | 16.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 15+ pts 57% · 6+ reb 53% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Brian AmunekeG | 32 | 12.7 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Bradey HenigeF | 29 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 55% | |||||
| Baye FallC | 12 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 4+ reb 41% | |||||
| KJ PerryG | 10 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 16% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 27% | |||||
San José St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey ChammaaG | 32 | 18.4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 20+ pts 41% · 4+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Mekhi MasonG | 28 | 15.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 2+ ast 58% · 2+ threes 55% | |||||
| JaVaughn HannahG | 28 | 10.1 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 2+ reb 59% · 4+ ast 44% | |||||
| Robert VaiholaF | 26 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 8+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Mookie CookF | 23 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| KJ Martin Jr.F | 21 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Oliver KullamaeG | 17 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Zine Eddine BedriF | 14 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 33% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…