UC Riverside at Fresno St
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 6:00 PM ET at Save Mart Center. UC Riverside our rank 202 · 3-0; Fresno St our rank 230 · 2-1.
Who will win UC Riverside vs Fresno St?
The model gives Fresno State a 56% chance to beat UC Riverside, with a projected score of Fresno St 76, UC Riverside 74.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno St | |||||
| LunguG · 34 min | 17.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 15+ 61% | |
| CandelinoG · 37 min | 15.5 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 15+ 52% | |
| AmunekeG · 33 min | 13.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 15+ 38% | |
| HenigeF · 29 min | 12.2 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 10+ 63% | |
| UC Riverside | |||||
| Parrish-TillmanF · 29 min | 15.6 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 15+ 52% | |
| DuckettG · 26 min | 12.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 15+ 36% | |
| ReaganG · 28 min | 9.9 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 10+ 47% | |
| MalcolmG · 22 min | 8.9 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bradey Henige: UC Riverside 46%Fresno St 54%
The white mark is the call with him: Fresno St 56%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Fresno St without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno St | ||||
| Bradey Henige | 0.7 | 54% | −2 | 75–76 |
| Ross Candelino | 0.6 | 54% | −2 | 75–76 |
| UC Riverside | ||||
| Devon Malcolm | 1.4 | 61% | +5 | 74–77 |
| Tony Duckett | 1.3 | 61% | +5 | 74–77 |
Change is in Fresno St's win chance, in points. Scores read UC Riverside, then Fresno St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UC Riverside 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 80-75at San José StCovered +8.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 7W 64-60vs DenverCovered −1.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 2W 110-47vs La Verne
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 84.7 and allowing 60.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Fresno St 2-1WLW
- Nov 10W 95-92vs Georgia StDidn't cover −5.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 7L 65-81at UC San DiegoDidn't cover +10.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2W 88-79vs Fresno Pacific
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 82.7 and allowing 84.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UC Riverside | Fresno St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.4 284th | 104.4 173rd |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.0 129th | 112.6 301st |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 170th | 50.2% 208th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.2% 240th | 52.5% 310th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 93rd | 17.0% 64th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.1% 349th | 32.1% 157th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 211th | 0.24 283rd |
The widest gap: UC Riverside's defense (129th) against Fresno St's offense (173rd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UC Riverside 35, Fresno St 36
- First-half margin
- Fresno St by 1.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 70.6
- Projected second half
- UC Riverside 40, Fresno St 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UC Riverside, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 36.7 scored, 29.0 allowed
- Fresno St, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 38.7 scored, 36.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UC Riverside
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Parrish-TillmanF | 29 | 15.6 | 6.5 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 2+ ast 49% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Easton ReaganG | 28 | 9.9 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 56% | |||||
| Tony DuckettG | 26 | 12.9 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Devon MalcolmG | 22 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| De'Undrae Perteete Jr.G | 21 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 52% | |||||
| Aidan RiceG | 19 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| James Evans Jr.G | 19 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Ben WallerG | 17 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
Fresno St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roger Fabrega UrpinaG | 37 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 5.4 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 59% · 4+ reb 52% · 6+ ast 45% | |||||
| Ross CandelinoG | 37 | 15.5 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| 15+ pts 52% · 2+ ast 46% · 3+ threes 48% | |||||
| Dragos LunguG | 34 | 17.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 61% · 6+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Brian AmunekeG | 33 | 13.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 3+ reb 50% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Bradey HenigeF | 29 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 8+ reb 46% | |||||
| Baye FallC | 12 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 20% · 4+ reb 42% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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