UC Riverside at San Diego
Wednesday, November 18, 2026, 9:30 PM ET at Jenny Craig Pavilion. UC Riverside our rank 202 · 3-0; San Diego our rank 196 · 2-1.
Who will win UC Riverside vs San Diego?
The model gives San Diego a 60% chance to beat UC Riverside, with a projected score of San Diego 76, UC Riverside 73.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | |||||
| HillG · 26 min | 14.9 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 15+ 49% | |
| StromerG · 33 min | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| Worthy Jr.G · 25 min | 12.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 10+ 62% | |
| HillF · 27 min | 10.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| UC Riverside | |||||
| Parrish-TillmanF · 29 min | 15.3 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 15+ 51% | |
| DuckettG · 26 min | 12.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 15+ 35% | |
| ReaganG · 27 min | 9.7 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 10+ 46% | |
| MalcolmG · 22 min | 8.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 10+ 39% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Davion Hill: UC Riverside 42%San Diego 58%
The white mark is the call with him: San Diego 60%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | San Diego without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | ||||
| Davion Hill | 0.8 | 58% | −2 | 73–76 |
| Sekou Konneh | 0.8 | 58% | −2 | 73–76 |
| Dusty Stromer | 0.7 | 58% | −2 | 73–76 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn | 0.6 | 58% | −2 | 73–76 |
| UC Riverside | ||||
| Devon Malcolm | 1.4 | 65% | +5 | 72–77 |
| Tony Duckett | 1.3 | 65% | +5 | 72–77 |
Change is in San Diego's win chance, in points. Scores read UC Riverside, then San Diego. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UC Riverside 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 80-75at San José StCovered +8.5 · Over 153.5
- Nov 7W 64-60vs DenverCovered −1.5 · Under 156.5
- Nov 2W 110-47vs La Verne
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 84.7 and allowing 60.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
San Diego 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 75-83at ColoradoCovered +12.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 6W 96-90vs Tarleton StDidn't cover −7.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 2W 79-62vs Biola
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 78.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UC Riverside | San Diego | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 99.4 284th | 104.2 178th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 106.0 129th | 110.6 244th |
| Possessions a game | 71.7 87th | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 50.7% 170th | 49.7% 236th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.2% 240th | 53.6% 347th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.3% 93rd | 17.2% 90th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 28.1% 349th | 33.2% 96th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.26 211th | 0.28 84th |
The widest gap: UC Riverside's defense (129th) against San Diego's offense (178th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UC Riverside 34, San Diego 36
- First-half margin
- San Diego by 1.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.9
- Projected second half
- UC Riverside 39, San Diego 40
- Second-half points, both teams
- 79.0
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UC Riverside, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 36.7 scored, 29.0 allowed
- San Diego, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 36.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UC Riverside
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyus Parrish-TillmanF | 29 | 15.3 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 2+ ast 47% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Easton ReaganG | 27 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 46% · 3+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Tony DuckettG | 26 | 12.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Devon MalcolmG | 22 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| De'Undrae Perteete Jr.G | 21 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 36% · 3+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 51% | |||||
| Aidan RiceG | 19 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 42% · 3+ reb 41% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
| James Evans Jr.G | 19 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Ben WallerG | 17 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 41% | |||||
San Diego
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dusty StromerG | 33 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 35% · 2+ ast 51% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jevon HillF | 27 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 2.3 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 3+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 61% | |||||
| Davion HillG | 26 | 14.9 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 49% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 49% | |||||
| Marqui Worthy Jr.G | 25 | 12.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 3+ reb 57% · 3+ ast 48% | |||||
| Jose Roberto TanchynF | 22 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Sekou KonnehF | 20 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 6+ reb 49% | |||||
| Chace HolleyG | 19 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 58% | |||||
| Terry McMorrisF | 18 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 41% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 24% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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