Chicago St at San Diego
Friday, November 13, 2026, 9:30 PM ET at Jenny Craig Pavilion. Chicago St our rank 349 · 2-2; San Diego our rank 196 · 2-1.
Who will win Chicago St vs San Diego?
The model gives San Diego a 87% chance to beat Chicago State, with a projected score of San Diego 80, Chicago St 67. The spread is San Diego −13.5, with an over/under of 147.5. The model makes it San Diego by 12.7, 0.8 points toward Chicago St, and projects 148 total points.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 80–90% have been right 84.9% of the time in 12,246 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | |||||
| HillG · 25 min | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 15+ 51% | |
| StromerG · 32 min | 12.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 15+ 36% | |
| Worthy Jr.G · 25 min | 12.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 10+ 64% | |
| HillF · 26 min | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 10+ 50% | |
| Chicago St | |||||
| PriceG · 27 min | 17.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 15+ 63% | |
| Lovings-WattsG · 26 min | 9.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 10+ 41% | |
| SheriffF · 18 min | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 5+ 66% | |
| CarrawayG · 16 min | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Davion Hill: Chicago St 15%San Diego 85%
The white mark is the call with him: San Diego 87%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | San Diego without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego | ||||
| Davion Hill | 0.8 | 85% | −2 | 68–80 |
| Sekou Konneh | 0.8 | 85% | −2 | 68–80 |
| Dusty Stromer | 0.7 | 86% | −1 | 68–80 |
| Jose Roberto Tanchyn | 0.6 | 86% | −1 | 68–80 |
Change is in San Diego's win chance, in points. Scores read Chicago St, then San Diego. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
| Spread | Over/under | |
|---|---|---|
| Line | San Diego −13.5 | 147.5 |
| Model | San Diego −12.7 | 147.5 |
| Gap | 0.8 toward Chicago St | None |
A gap is a difference of opinion, not a tip. This season the model's side has covered 163 of 337 spreads (48%); over 11,507 games in the last two seasons it covered 50.6%. It takes about 52.4% to break even at standard odds. Scorecard
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Chicago St 2-2LWLW
- Nov 11W 81-62at CA BaptistCovered +11.5 · Over 138.5
- Nov 9L 67-82vs SC StateDidn't cover −2.5 · Over 144.5
- Nov 5W 66-54at Incarnate WordCovered +8.5 · Under 142.5
- Nov 2L 59-109at Texas
- Last 4
- 2–2, scoring 68.2 and allowing 76.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 1 under
San Diego 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 75-83at ColoradoCovered +12.5 · Over 151.5
- Nov 6W 96-90vs Tarleton StDidn't cover −7.5 · Over 147.5
- Nov 2W 79-62vs Biola
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 83.3 and allowing 78.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Chicago St | San Diego | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.9 338th | 104.2 178th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.4 329th | 110.6 244th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.6% 250th | 49.7% 236th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.6% 263rd | 53.6% 347th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 333rd | 17.2% 90th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 43rd | 33.2% 96th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 65th | 0.28 84th |
The widest gap: San Diego's offense (178th) against Chicago St's defense (329th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Chicago St 31, San Diego 38
- First-half margin
- San Diego by 7.0
- First-half points, both teams
- 69.2
- Projected second half
- Chicago St 36, San Diego 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 78.3
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Chicago St, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 4 · 34.0 scored, 39.2 allowed
- San Diego, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 37.3 scored, 36.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Chicago St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike PriceG | 27 | 17.5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| 15+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 48% · 3+ threes 42% | |||||
| Will Lovings-WattsG | 26 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 4+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 56% | |||||
| Kameron FomanF | 24 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 32% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Malik OlafioyeG | 22 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Malek RobinsonG | 22 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 34% · 2+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| Foday SheriffF | 18 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 4+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Ben KalonjiC | 16 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 58% | |||||
| Armari CarrawayG | 16 | 6.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 2+ reb 31% · 2+ threes 39% | |||||
San Diego
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dusty StromerG | 32 | 12.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 47% | |||||
| Jevon HillF | 26 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 2.4 |
| 10+ pts 50% · 3+ reb 58% · 3+ threes 40% | |||||
| Davion HillG | 25 | 15.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 48% · 3+ ast 53% | |||||
| Marqui Worthy Jr.G | 25 | 12.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 64% · 3+ reb 59% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Jose Roberto TanchynF | 21 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 7+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 43% | |||||
| Sekou KonnehF | 20 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 52% | |||||
| Chace HolleyG | 19 | 8.1 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 62% | |||||
| Terry McMorrisF | 18 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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