Chicago St 59, Texas 109
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:00 PM ET at Moody Center. Chicago St our rank 349 · 2-2; Texas AP 7, our rank 19 · 3-0.
Who won Chicago St vs Texas?
Final: Texas 109, Chicago State 59. Before tip-off the model gave Texas a >99% chance to win, with a projected margin of 36.8 points for Texas. Matas Vokietaitis scored 22 for Texas; Will Lovings-Watts had 13 for Chicago St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Matas Vokietaitis: Chicago St <1%Texas >99%
The white mark is the call with him: Texas >99%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Texas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ||||
| Matas Vokietaitis | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 50–83 |
| David Punch | 3.9 | >99% | 0 | 50–83 |
| Isaiah Johnson | 3.5 | >99% | 0 | 50–83 |
| Amari Evans | 3.2 | >99% | 0 | 50–84 |
Change is in Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read Chicago St, then Texas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
Chicago St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Texas
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Chicago St | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 94.9 338th | 120.6 8th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 114.4 329th | 97.4 35th |
| Possessions a game | 69.7 292nd | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.6% 250th | 54.7% 7th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.6% 263rd | 48.3% 42nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 19.8% 333rd | 16.7% 41st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 43rd | 35.3% 19th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.29 65th | 0.29 54th |
The widest gap: Texas's offense (8th) against Chicago St's defense (329th), of 365 teams.
First half
Texas led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 5.8 points and the total by 23.3.
- At halftime
- Chicago St 30, Texas 56
- Projected halftime score
- Chicago St 21, Texas 41
- First-half margin
- Texas by 20.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 62.7
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
Chicago St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike PriceG | 27 | 12 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| Will Lovings-WattsG | 24 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryan AkanmuF | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Malek RobinsonG | 21 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Malik OlafioyeG | 20 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kameron FomanF | 18 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Najee GrahamG | 16 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Davius LouryF | 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Armari CarrawayG | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin GoosbyG | 28 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| Matas VokietaitisC | 25 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaiah JohnsonG | 25 | 18 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| David PunchF | 24 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Amari EvansG | 22 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 3 |
| Marcus Spears Jr.F | 20 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Elyjah FreemanG | 16 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe SterlingG | 15 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Bo OgdenG | 14 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 |