Who will win Baylor vs Texas?
The model gives Texas a 54% chance to beat Baylor, with a projected score of Texas 79, Baylor 78.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Texas | |||||
| VokietaitisC · 24 min | 17.2 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 15+ 62% | |
| JohnsonG · 26 min | 12.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 10+ 62% | |
| PunchF · 23 min | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 10+ 49% | |
| Spears Jr.F · 19 min | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 10+ 38% | |
 Baylor | |||||
| Decker Jr.G · 26 min | 13.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 15+ 38% | |
| MingoG · 26 min | 13.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 15+ 37% | |
| Williams IVG · 26 min | 12.0 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 10+ 62% | |
| MingoG · 23 min | 11.4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 10+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Matas Vokietaitis: Baylor 61%Texas 39%
The white mark is the call with him: Texas 54%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Texas without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | ||||
| Matas Vokietaitis | 3.9 | 39% | −15 | 80–77 |
| David Punch | 3.9 | 39% | −15 | 80–77 |
| Isaiah Johnson | 3.5 | 41% | −13 | 80–78 |
| Amari Evans | 3.2 | 42% | −12 | 80–78 |
| Baylor | ||||
| Isaac Celiscar | 3.4 | 68% | +14 | 76–81 |
| Isaac Williams IV | 3.1 | 67% | +13 | 77–81 |
| Kayden Mingo | 3.0 | 66% | +12 | 77–81 |
| Brett Decker Jr. | 2.6 | 65% | +11 | 77–81 |
Change is in Texas's win chance, in points. Scores read Baylor, then Texas. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
Baylor 3-0WWW
- Nov 10W 90-61vs YaleCovered −19.5 · Under 158.5
- Nov 6W 109-53vs AR-Pine BluffCovered −38.5 · Under 163.5
- Nov 2W 87-65vs N'Western St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 95.3 and allowing 59.7
- Against the spread, this season
- 2–0
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
Texas 3-0WWW
- Nov 9W 93-62vs GramblingDidn't cover −37.5 · Under 155.5
- Nov 5W 98-50vs Gardner-WebbCovered −40.5 · Under 154.5
- Nov 2W 109-59vs Chicago St
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 100.0 and allowing 57.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| Baylor | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 117.6 25th | 120.6 8th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 95.9 25th | 97.4 35th |
| Possessions a game | 72.1 59th | 70.8 184th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.0% 145th | 54.7% 7th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.9% 138th | 48.3% 42nd |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 155th | 16.7% 41st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 34.4% 39th | 35.3% 19th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.28 92nd | 0.29 54th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- Baylor 37, Texas 37
- First-half margin
- Texas by 0.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 73.9
- Projected second half
- Baylor 42, Texas 42
- Second-half points, both teams
- 83.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- Baylor, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 49.7 scored, 25.0 allowed
- Texas, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 55.0 scored, 25.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
Baylor
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayden MingoG | 26 | 13.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 |
| 15+ pts 37% · 4+ reb 42% · 3+ ast 50% | |||||
| Isaac Williams IVG | 26 | 12.0 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 56% · 4+ ast 46% | |||||
| Brett Decker Jr.G | 26 | 13.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 3.0 |
| 15+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 38% · 3+ threes 52% | |||||
| Isaac CeliscarF | 23 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 44% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Dylan MingoG | 23 | 11.4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Elijah WilliamsF | 19 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 53% | |||||
| Evan ChatmanF | 18 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Caden PowellC | 18 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 44% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
Texas
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah JohnsonG | 26 | 12.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ reb 61% · 3+ ast 44% | |||||
| Austin GoosbyG | 24 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 4+ reb 46% · 3+ ast 47% | |||||
| Matas VokietaitisC | 24 | 17.2 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 15+ pts 62% · 7+ reb 45% | |||||
| David PunchF | 23 | 10.1 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 49% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Elyjah FreemanG | 21 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 4+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Amari EvansG | 21 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 53% · 4+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Marcus Spears Jr.F | 19 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 4+ reb 50% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Joe SterlingG | 15 | 7.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| 10+ pts 33% · 2+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 37% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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