N'Western St 65, Baylor 87
Final. Monday, November 2, 2026, 9:30 PM ET at Foster Pavilion. N'Western St our rank 299 · 1-3; Baylor our rank 28 · 3-0.
Who won N'Western St vs Baylor?
Final: Baylor 87, Northwestern State 65. Before tip-off the model gave Baylor a 98% chance to win, with a projected margin of 26.6 points for Baylor. Kayden Mingo scored 17 for Baylor; Kai Simpson had 17 for N'Western St.
Prediction made that morning; page updated November 13, 2026.
The call
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 90–100% have been right 95.4% of the time in 11,767 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip.
The game without one player
Without Isaac Celiscar: N'Western St 3%Baylor 97%
The white mark is the call with him: Baylor 98%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Baylor without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor | ||||
| Isaac Celiscar | 3.4 | 97% | −1 | 56–80 |
| Isaac Williams IV | 3.1 | 97% | −1 | 56–80 |
| Kayden Mingo | 3.0 | 97% | −1 | 56–80 |
| Brett Decker Jr. | 2.6 | 97% | −1 | 56–80 |
Change is in Baylor's win chance, in points. Scores read N'Western St, then Baylor. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Play-by-play
Team numbers
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesWin probability
Game chat
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Why the model sees it this way
The game in numbers
The matchup
Form
N'Western St
No games yet this season: this is its first.
Baylor
No games yet this season: this is its first.
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N'Western St | Baylor | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.7 306th | 117.6 25th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.1 265th | 95.9 25th |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 307th | 72.1 59th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 228th | 51.0% 145th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 146th | 49.9% 138th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 181st | 17.8% 155th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 320th | 34.4% 39th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 141st | 0.28 92nd |
The widest gap: Baylor's defense (25th) against N'Western St's offense (306th), of 365 teams.
First half
Baylor led at the half, as projected. The margin was off by 3.4 points and the total by 18.2.
- At halftime
- N'Western St 32, Baylor 50
- Projected halftime score
- N'Western St 25, Baylor 39
- First-half margin
- Baylor by 14.6
- First-half points, both teams
- 63.8
- Tied at the half
- 4%
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Box score
N'Western St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai SimpsonG | 29 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Antoine AlmuttarG | 28 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah VickF | 27 | 12 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan OjukwuF | 24 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Arne OsojnikF | 22 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
| Doyle BrownG | 19 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jayden NesbittF | 16 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Dionjahe ThomasF | 12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Kordrick TurnerF | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Baylor
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayden MingoG | 28 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Brett Decker Jr.G | 24 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Dylan MingoG | 23 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Isaac CeliscarF | 23 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Isaac Williams IVG | 23 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Elijah WilliamsF | 20 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| Evan ChatmanF | 16 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Juslin Bodo BodoC | 15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Caden PowellC | 15 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 |