N'Western St at Little Rock
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Jack Stephens Center. N'Western St our rank 299 · 1-3; Little Rock our rank 272 · 0-3.
Who will win N'Western St vs Little Rock?
The model gives Little Rock a 65% chance to beat Northwestern State, with a projected score of Little Rock 75, N'Western St 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock | |||||
| KingG · 30 min | 16.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 15+ 59% | |
| HubbardF · 23 min | 14.1 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 15+ 43% | |
| ClarkG · 26 min | 9.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 10+ 45% | |
| LynG · 22 min | 8.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 10+ 40% | |
| N'Western St | |||||
| SimpsonG · 30 min | 15.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 15+ 54% | |
| VickF · 28 min | 9.1 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 42% | |
| AlmuttarG · 30 min | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 39% | |
| OjukwuF · 23 min | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bradyn Hubbard: N'Western St 37%Little Rock 63%
The white mark is the call with him: Little Rock 65%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Little Rock without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Rock | ||||
| Bradyn Hubbard | 0.5 | 63% | −2 | 71–74 |
Change is in Little Rock's win chance, in points. Scores read N'Western St, then Little Rock. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
N'Western St 1-3LLLW
- Nov 10W 77-49vs Millsaps
- Nov 7L 71-93at Murray StCovered +23.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 5L 44-82at Mississippi StDidn't cover +21.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2L 65-87at Baylor
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 64.2 and allowing 77.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Little Rock 0-3LLL
- Nov 10L 69-94at New MexicoDidn't cover +23.5 · Over 157.5
- Nov 7L 79-83vs SE LouisianaDidn't cover −10.5 · Over 145.5
- Nov 2L 72-82at VCU
- Last 3
- 0–3, scoring 73.3 and allowing 86.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 2 over, 0 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| N'Western St | Little Rock | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 97.7 306th | 101.2 244th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 111.1 265th | 112.7 302nd |
| Possessions a game | 69.5 307th | 70.4 222nd |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 49.9% 228th | 50.6% 176th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.0% 146th | 52.6% 313th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.0% 181st | 18.9% 280th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 29.1% 320th | 33.1% 103rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 141st | 0.28 100th |
First half
- Projected halftime score
- N'Western St 33, Little Rock 35
- First-half margin
- Little Rock by 2.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.0
- Projected second half
- N'Western St 38, Little Rock 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.9
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- N'Western St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 33.0 scored, 40.5 allowed
- Little Rock, first halves so far
- Led 0 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 43.3 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
N'Western St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai SimpsonG | 30 | 15.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 45% | |||||
| Antoine AlmuttarG | 30 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Isaiah VickF | 28 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 42% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Kordrick TurnerF | 24 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Nathan OjukwuF | 23 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Doyle BrownG | 17 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
| Armon AlmuttarG | 17 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Arne OsojnikF | 14 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 31% to play · 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Missed the last game: Arne Osojnik (18 min a game).
Little Rock
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jah'Likai KingG | 30 | 16.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 15+ pts 59% · 3+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 54% | |||||
| Aaron ClarkG | 26 | 9.6 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 45% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Bradyn HubbardF | 23 | 14.1 | 5.3 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 15+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Papa Amadou KanteF | 22 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 6+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Jalen LynG | 22 | 8.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 57% | |||||
| Taj WaltersG | 22 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 4+ reb 58% · 2+ threes 35% | |||||
| Cameron BrownG | 19 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 47% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 51% | |||||
| Tyrese LaceyG | 17 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 5+ pts 38% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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