UT Arlington at N'Western St
Friday, November 20, 2026, 7:30 PM ET at Prather Coliseum. UT Arlington our rank 190 · 3-1; N'Western St our rank 299 · 1-3.
Who will win UT Arlington vs N'Western St?
The model gives UT Arlington a 58% chance to beat Northwestern State, with a projected score of UT Arlington 72, N'Western St 70.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Arlington | |||||
| SimicF · 21 min | 10.6 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 53% | |
| HankinsG · 28 min | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| PanoamG · 32 min | 9.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 43% | |
| ShelbyG · 30 min | 9.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 41% | |
| N'Western St | |||||
| SimpsonG · 30 min | 15.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 15+ 54% | |
| VickF · 28 min | 9.1 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 10+ 41% | |
| AlmuttarG · 30 min | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 10+ 39% | |
| OjukwuF · 23 min | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 10+ 36% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Noah Shelby: UT Arlington 56%N'Western St 44%
The white mark is the call with him: UT Arlington 58%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UT Arlington without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Arlington | ||||
| Noah Shelby | 0.8 | 56% | −2 | 72–70 |
| Niko Bundalo | 0.6 | 56% | −2 | 72–70 |
Change is in UT Arlington's win chance, in points. Scores read UT Arlington, then N'Western St. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UT Arlington 3-1WWLW
- Nov 9W 116-65vs Bethesda
- Nov 8L 62-71at Hawai'iDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 6W 89-85vs PortlandCovered +2.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 2W 89-56vs UNT Dallas
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 89.0 and allowing 69.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
N'Western St 1-3LLLW
- Nov 10W 77-49vs Millsaps
- Nov 7L 71-93at Murray StCovered +23.5 · Over 155.5
- Nov 5L 44-82at Mississippi StDidn't cover +21.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 2L 65-87at Baylor
- Last 4
- 1–3, scoring 64.2 and allowing 77.8
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UT Arlington | N'Western St | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.8 250th | 97.7 306th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.0 149th | 111.1 265th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 69.5 307th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.2% 129th | 49.9% 228th |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 154th | 50.0% 146th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 229th | 18.0% 181st |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 233rd | 29.1% 320th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 258th | 0.27 141st |
The widest gap: UT Arlington's defense (149th) against N'Western St's offense (306th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UT Arlington 34, N'Western St 33
- First-half margin
- UT Arlington by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.5
- Projected second half
- UT Arlington 38, N'Western St 37
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.2
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UT Arlington, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 43.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
- N'Western St, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 4 · 33.0 scored, 40.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UT Arlington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mier PanoamG | 32 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 52% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Noah ShelbyG | 30 | 9.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tristan HankinsG | 28 | 9.9 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 47% · 3+ ast 53% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Miles GoodmanF | 22 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 48% | |||||
| Tycen McDanielsF | 21 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 26% | |||||
| Teodor SimicF | 21 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 53% · 6+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Niko BundaloF | 21 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Trevaun ClarkF | 20 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 58% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Missed the last game: Tristan Hankins (31 min a game).
N'Western St
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai SimpsonG | 30 | 15.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| 15+ pts 54% · 4+ reb 52% · 3+ ast 46% | |||||
| Antoine AlmuttarG | 30 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 3+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Isaiah VickF | 28 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 6+ reb 46% · 1+ threes 39% | |||||
| Kordrick TurnerF | 24 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 51% · 2+ ast 39% | |||||
| Nathan OjukwuF | 23 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 10+ pts 36% · 2+ ast 50% · 1+ threes 48% | |||||
| Doyle BrownG | 17 | 5.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 2+ reb 34% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Armon AlmuttarG | 16 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 3+ reb 39% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Arne OsojnikF | 14 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 |
| 31% to play · 5+ pts 43% · 3+ reb 45% · 1+ threes 46% | |||||
Missed the last game: Arne Osojnik (18 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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