UT Rio Grande at UT Arlington
Saturday, November 14, 2026, 7:00 PM ET at College Park Center. UT Rio Grande our rank 249 · 2-1; UT Arlington our rank 190 · 3-1.
Who will win UT Rio Grande vs UT Arlington?
The model gives UT Arlington a 67% chance to beat UT Rio Grande Valley, with a projected score of UT Arlington 74, UT Rio Grande 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Arlington | |||||
| SimicF · 21 min | 10.8 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 10+ 54% | |
| HankinsG · 28 min | 10.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 10+ 48% | |
| PanoamG · 32 min | 9.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 10+ 44% | |
| ShelbyG · 29 min | 9.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 10+ 41% | |
| UT Rio Grande | |||||
| PoseyG · 31 min | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 15+ 36% | |
| KnightG · 29 min | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 10+ 48% | |
| Crawford Jr.F · 24 min | 7.4 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 5+ 68% | |
| PryorG · 28 min | 6.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 5+ 58% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Noah Shelby: UT Rio Grande 36%UT Arlington 64%
The white mark is the call with him: UT Arlington 67%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | UT Arlington without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UT Arlington | ||||
| Noah Shelby | 0.8 | 64% | −3 | 69–73 |
| Niko Bundalo | 0.6 | 65% | −2 | 69–73 |
| UT Rio Grande | ||||
| Jace Posey | 1.2 | 71% | +4 | 68–74 |
Change is in UT Arlington's win chance, in points. Scores read UT Rio Grande, then UT Arlington. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UT Rio Grande 2-1WWL
- Nov 10L 65-72vs Texas StDidn't cover +5.5 · Under 138.5
- Nov 7W 68-63vs Prairie ViewDidn't cover −8.5 · Under 149.5
- Nov 2W 81-51vs Texas A&M-Kingsville
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 71.3 and allowing 62.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–2
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 2 under
UT Arlington 3-1WWLW
- Nov 9W 116-65vs Bethesda
- Nov 8L 62-71at Hawai'iDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 6W 89-85vs PortlandCovered +2.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 2W 89-56vs UNT Dallas
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 89.0 and allowing 69.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UT Rio Grande | UT Arlington | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.4 262nd | 100.8 250th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 110.4 240th | 107.0 149th |
| Possessions a game | 69.1 331st | 70.9 171st |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 48.9% 296th | 51.2% 129th |
| Opponents' shooting | 51.6% 264th | 50.1% 154th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.8% 151st | 18.5% 229th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.9% 170th | 31.0% 233rd |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 143rd | 0.25 258th |
The widest gap: UT Arlington's defense (149th) against UT Rio Grande's offense (262nd), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UT Rio Grande 32, UT Arlington 35
- First-half margin
- UT Arlington by 2.7
- First-half points, both teams
- 66.8
- Projected second half
- UT Rio Grande 37, UT Arlington 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 75.6
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UT Rio Grande, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 3 · 33.3 scored, 26.0 allowed
- UT Arlington, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 43.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UT Rio Grande
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jace PoseyG | 31 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
| 15+ pts 36% · 6+ reb 47% · 2+ ast 44% | |||||
| B.B. KnightG | 29 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| 10+ pts 48% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Devon PryorG | 28 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 4+ reb 50% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Bobby Crawford Jr.F | 24 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 30% | |||||
| Terrell WrightF | 19 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 4+ reb 48% · 2+ ast 16% | |||||
| Always WrightG | 18 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 43% · 2+ ast 51% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Caden BellG | 18 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 57% · 2+ reb 47% · 1+ threes 58% | |||||
| Chris UwayoG | 13 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5+ pts 27% · 2+ reb 40% · 1+ threes 31% | |||||
UT Arlington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mier PanoamG | 32 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 5+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Noah ShelbyG | 29 | 9.1 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tristan HankinsG | 28 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.9 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 48% · 3+ ast 55% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Miles GoodmanF | 22 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 66% · 5+ reb 49% | |||||
| Tycen McDanielsF | 21 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 5+ reb 53% · 2+ ast 27% | |||||
| Teodor SimicF | 21 | 10.8 | 5.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 54% · 6+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Niko BundaloF | 21 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 5+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 35% | |||||
| Trevaun ClarkF | 20 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 3+ reb 59% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Missed the last game: Tristan Hankins (31 min a game).
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
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