UT Arlington at Southern Miss
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 8:00 PM ET at Reed Green Coliseum. UT Arlington our rank 190 · 3-1; Southern Miss our rank 225 · 2-1.
Who will win UT Arlington vs Southern Miss?
The model gives Southern Miss a 58% chance to beat UT Arlington, with a projected score of Southern Miss 74, UT Arlington 72.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 50–60% have been right 55.4% of the time in 16,654 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | |||||
| Gaines-WyattG · 31 min | 14.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 15+ 48% | |
| WestonG · 28 min | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 10+ 62% | |
| TaverasG · 25 min | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 10+ 60% | |
| WallaceF · 22 min | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 10+ 55% | |
| UT Arlington | |||||
| SimicF · 21 min | 10.6 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 10+ 52% | |
| HankinsG · 28 min | 9.8 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 10+ 47% | |
| PanoamG · 32 min | 9.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 10+ 43% | |
| ShelbyG · 30 min | 8.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 10+ 40% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Isaac Taveras: UT Arlington 46%Southern Miss 54%
The white mark is the call with him: Southern Miss 58%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Southern Miss without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | ||||
| Isaac Taveras | 1.1 | 54% | −4 | 72–74 |
| Brandon Weston | 0.6 | 56% | −2 | 72–74 |
| UT Arlington | ||||
| Noah Shelby | 0.8 | 61% | +3 | 71–75 |
| Niko Bundalo | 0.6 | 60% | +2 | 72–74 |
Change is in Southern Miss's win chance, in points. Scores read UT Arlington, then Southern Miss. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
UT Arlington 3-1WWLW
- Nov 9W 116-65vs Bethesda
- Nov 8L 62-71at Hawai'iDidn't cover +8.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 6W 89-85vs PortlandCovered +2.5 · Over 150.5
- Nov 2W 89-56vs UNT Dallas
- Last 4
- 3–1, scoring 89.0 and allowing 69.2
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Southern Miss 2-1WLW
- Nov 11W 84-80vs Jackson StDidn't cover −8.5 · Over 152.5
- Nov 6L 57-83at Iowa StateCovered +30.5 · Under 145.5
- Nov 2W 82-35vs Tougaloo
- Last 3
- 2–1, scoring 74.3 and allowing 66.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| UT Arlington | Southern Miss | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 100.8 250th | 100.4 260th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 107.0 149th | 108.3 180th |
| Possessions a game | 70.9 171st | 71.6 95th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.2% 129th | 49.1% 282nd |
| Opponents' shooting | 50.1% 154th | 51.8% 275th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 18.5% 229th | 19.3% 306th |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 31.0% 233rd | 33.1% 101st |
| Free throws per shot | 0.25 258th | 0.28 83rd |
The widest gap: UT Arlington's defense (149th) against Southern Miss's offense (260th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- UT Arlington 34, Southern Miss 35
- First-half margin
- Southern Miss by 1.3
- First-half points, both teams
- 68.5
- Projected second half
- UT Arlington 38, Southern Miss 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 77.5
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- UT Arlington, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 4 · 43.0 scored, 31.0 allowed
- Southern Miss, first halves so far
- Led 1 of 3 · 35.3 scored, 32.7 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
UT Arlington
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mier PanoamG | 32 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 43% · 5+ reb 51% · 1+ threes 45% | |||||
| Noah ShelbyG | 30 | 8.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 40% · 3+ reb 45% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Tristan HankinsG | 28 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.9 |
| 48% to play · 10+ pts 47% · 3+ ast 52% · 2+ threes 52% | |||||
| Miles GoodmanF | 22 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 65% · 5+ reb 48% | |||||
| Tycen McDanielsF | 21 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ pts 67% · 5+ reb 52% · 2+ ast 25% | |||||
| Teodor SimicF | 21 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 52% · 6+ reb 49% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Niko BundaloF | 21 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 10+ pts 39% · 5+ reb 55% · 1+ threes 34% | |||||
| Trevaun ClarkF | 20 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 5+ pts 68% · 3+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 59% | |||||
Missed the last game: Tristan Hankins (31 min a game).
Southern Miss
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalyke Gaines-WyattG | 31 | 14.8 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 48% · 4+ ast 46% · 2+ threes 46% | |||||
| Anthony IgiedeG | 28 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 51% · 4+ reb 45% · 2+ ast 55% | |||||
| Brandon WestonG | 28 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 10+ pts 62% · 2+ ast 46% · 1+ threes 52% | |||||
| Isaac TaverasG | 25 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 10+ pts 60% · 6+ reb 55% · 2+ ast 57% | |||||
| Cameron WallaceF | 22 | 11.0 | 5.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 10+ pts 55% · 5+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 31% | |||||
| Mike MontanoF | 19 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 46% · 4+ reb 57% · 1+ threes 44% | |||||
| Max BlankC | 15 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 29% · 3+ reb 58% · 2+ ast 15% | |||||
| Chandler WattsG | 13 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5+ pts 30% · 2+ reb 53% · 1+ threes 28% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…