West Virginia v Auburn
Tuesday, November 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena. West Virginia our rank 45 · 3-0; Auburn our rank 14 · 2-0.
Who will win West Virginia vs Auburn?
The model gives Auburn a 70% chance to beat West Virginia, with a projected score of Auburn 75, West Virginia 69.
Half of games like thisFour in five
Calls of 60–70% have been right 64.8% of the time in 15,721 past games, and the typical miss on the margin is 8.8 points. After the final, the result is pinned to this strip. As of 2:23 AM ET on November 13, 2026. Updated three times a day until tip-off.
Players to watch
| Player | Pts | Reb | Ast | Last games | Chance of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | |||||
| PettifordG · 26 min | 15.7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 15+ 53% | |
| OvertonG · 26 min | 9.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 10+ 44% | |
| Kimble IIIG · 17 min | 9.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 10+ 41% | |
| OlsenF · 22 min | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 10+ 34% | |
| West Virginia | |||||
| SadlerG · 26 min | 12.5 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 10+ 65% | |
| BizjackG · 29 min | 12.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 10+ 63% | |
| SyllaC · 20 min | 8.6 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 10+ 38% | |
| LorientF · 25 min | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 10+ 34% | |
Bars: points in the player's latest games this season. Blue line: tonight's projection. Every regular's line
The game without one player
Without Bukky Oboye: West Virginia 42%Auburn 58%
The white mark is the call with him: Auburn 70%.
| Player | Points a game he adds | Auburn without him | Change | Projected score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auburn | ||||
| Bukky Oboye | 3.5 | 58% | −12 | 71–73 |
| Thomas Dowd | 3.3 | 59% | −11 | 71–73 |
| Tahaad Pettiford | 3.3 | 59% | −11 | 71–73 |
| Kevin Overton | 3.2 | 59% | −11 | 71–73 |
| West Virginia | ||||
| Brenen Lorient | 3.0 | 78% | +8 | 68–76 |
| Finley Bizjack | 2.7 | 77% | +7 | 68–76 |
| Javan Buchanan | 2.5 | 77% | +7 | 68–76 |
| Joson Sanon | 2.1 | 76% | +6 | 68–76 |
Change is in Auburn's win chance, in points. Scores read West Virginia, then Auburn. A player's value is what the team is better by with him than with a replacement, from the player ratings.
Model against the line
Your call
All of today's gamesPlay-by-play
Team numbers
Form
West Virginia 3-0WWW
- Nov 12W 75-61vs MercerDidn't cover −24.5 · Under 151.5
- Nov 6W 91-53vs StetsonCovered −27.5 · Over 140.5
- Nov 2W 91-46vs Niagara
- Last 3
- 3–0, scoring 85.7 and allowing 53.3
- Against the spread, this season
- 1–1
- Totals, this season
- 1 over, 1 under
Auburn 2-0WW
- Nov 9W 75-53vs App StateDidn't cover −23.5 · Under 143.5
- Nov 4W 92-59vs SE Louisiana
- Last 2
- 2–0, scoring 83.5 and allowing 56.0
- Against the spread, this season
- 0–1
- Totals, this season
- 0 over, 1 under
The spread and the total are the lines logged with each prediction. Form is what happened; the ratings above already count recent games more.
Offense against defense
| West Virginia | Auburn | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored per 100 possessions | 111.3 80th | 120.2 12th |
| Points allowed per 100 | 94.9 23rd | 95.9 27th |
| Possessions a game | 68.8 344th | 70.7 196th |
| Shooting (effective field-goal %) | 51.4% 116th | 50.8% 154th |
| Opponents' shooting | 49.4% 101st | 47.3% 19th |
| Turnovers, share of possessions | 17.1% 75th | 17.8% 143rd |
| Offensive rebounds, share of misses | 32.1% 153rd | 34.5% 36th |
| Free throws per shot | 0.27 135th | 0.26 182nd |
The widest gap: Auburn's defense (27th) against West Virginia's offense (80th), of 365 teams.
First half
- Projected halftime score
- West Virginia 32, Auburn 35
- First-half margin
- Auburn by 3.2
- First-half points, both teams
- 67.5
- Projected second half
- West Virginia 37, Auburn 39
- Second-half points, both teams
- 76.4
- Tied at the half
- 4%
- West Virginia, first halves so far
- Led 3 of 3 · 39.0 scored, 29.3 allowed
- Auburn, first halves so far
- Led 2 of 2 · 40.0 scored, 30.5 allowed
Our own projection, not a sportsbook's first-half line. On 11,516 past games it had not seen, the halftime leader was right 67.2% of the time and the first-half total was off by 8.1 points on average. This season: 366 of 476 halftime leaders right. Scorecard
Player projections
West Virginia
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finley BizjackG | 29 | 12.2 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 63% · 2+ ast 50% · 2+ threes 49% | |||||
| Miles SadlerG | 26 | 12.5 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 10+ pts 65% · 4+ ast 45% · 2+ threes 42% | |||||
| Brenen LorientF | 25 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 4+ reb 56% · 1+ threes 54% | |||||
| Martin SomervilleG | 21 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| 5+ pts 55% · 2+ reb 54% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
| Seydou TraoreG | 20 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 5+ pts 58% · 3+ reb 54% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Mouhamed SyllaC | 20 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| 10+ pts 38% · 6+ reb 49% | |||||
| Javan BuchananF | 20 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| 5+ pts 69% · 4+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 42% | |||||
| Joson SanonG | 20 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 1.6 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 3+ reb 41% · 2+ threes 43% | |||||
Auburn
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast | 3s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas DowdF | 27 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 32% · 7+ reb 56% · 2+ ast 45% | |||||
| Tahaad PettifordG | 26 | 15.7 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| 15+ pts 53% · 2+ reb 50% · 3+ ast 52% | |||||
| Kevin OvertonG | 26 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| 10+ pts 44% · 2+ reb 57% · 2+ threes 50% | |||||
| Bukky OboyeC | 23 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5+ pts 61% · 5+ reb 45% | |||||
| Adam OlsenF | 22 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 1.9 |
| 10+ pts 34% · 3+ reb 46% · 2+ threes 51% | |||||
| Caleb WilliamsG | 20 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| 5+ pts 52% · 3+ reb 42% · 1+ threes 50% | |||||
| Narcisse NgoyC | 18 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5+ pts 59% · 6+ reb 47% | |||||
| George Kimble IIIG | 17 | 9.1 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| 10+ pts 41% · 2+ reb 49% · 2+ ast 48% | |||||
Our own projections from each player's minutes and production, this opponent and the game's pace: not a sportsbook's lines. Under each name, the round numbers the player is about as likely as not to reach. How they have done
Win probability
Game chat
Loading the chat…